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| title | chunk | source | category | tags | date_saved | instance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Publication bias | 2/2 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Publication_bias | reference | science, encyclopedia | 2026-05-05T03:42:45.581729+00:00 | kb-cron |
Meta-analyses and systematic reviews can account for publication bias by including evidence from unpublished studies and the grey literature. The presence of publication bias can also be explored by constructing a funnel plot in which the estimate of the reported effect size is plotted against a measure of precision or sample size. The premise is that the scatter of points should reflect a funnel shape, indicating that the reporting of effect sizes is not related to their statistical significance. However, when small studies are predominately in one direction (usually the direction of larger effect sizes), asymmetry will ensue and this may be indicative of publication bias. Because an inevitable degree of subjectivity exists in the interpretation of funnel plots, several tests have been proposed for detecting funnel plot asymmetry. These are often based on linear regression including the popular Eggers regression test, and may adopt a multiplicative or additive dispersion parameter to adjust for the presence of between-study heterogeneity. Some approaches may even attempt to compensate for the (potential) presence of publication bias, which is particularly useful to explore the potential impact on meta-analysis results. In ecology and environmental biology, a study found that publication bias impacted the effect size, statistical power, and magnitude. The prevalence of publication bias distorted confidence in meta-analytic results, with 66% of initially statistically significant meta-analytic means becoming non-significant after correcting for publication bias. Ecological and evolutionary studies consistently had low statistical power (15%) with a 4-fold exaggeration of effects on average (Type M error rates = 4.4). The presence of publication bias can be detected by Time-lag bias tests, where time-lag bias occurs when larger or statistically significant effects are published more quickly than smaller or non-statistically significant effects. It can manifest as a decline in the magnitude of the overall effect over time. The key feature of time-lag bias tests is that, as more studies accumulate, the mean effect size is expected to converge on its true value.
== Compensation examples == Two meta-analyses of the efficacy of reboxetine as an antidepressant demonstrated attempts to detect publication bias in clinical trials. Based on positive trial data, reboxetine was originally passed as a treatment for depression in many countries in Europe and the UK in 2001 (though in practice it is rarely used for this indication). A 2010 meta-analysis concluded that reboxetine was ineffective and that the preponderance of positive-outcome trials reflected publication bias, mostly due to trials published by the drug manufacturer Pfizer. A subsequent meta-analysis published in 2011, based on the original data, found flaws in the 2010 analyses and suggested that the data indicated reboxetine was effective in severe depression (see Reboxetine § Efficacy). Examples of publication bias are given by Ben Goldacre and Peter Wilmshurst. In the social sciences, a study of published papers exploring the relationship between corporate social and financial performance found that "in economics, finance, and accounting journals, the average correlations were only about half the magnitude of the findings published in Social Issues Management, Business Ethics, or Business and Society journals". One example cited as an instance of publication bias is the refusal to publish attempted replications of Bem's work that claimed evidence for precognition by The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (the original publisher of Bem's article). An analysis comparing studies of gene-disease associations originating in China to those originating outside China found that those conducted within the country reported a stronger association and a more statistically significant result.
== Risks == John Ioannidis argues that "claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias." He lists the following factors as those that make a paper with a positive result more likely to enter the literature and suppress negative-result papers:
The studies conducted in a field have small sample sizes. The effect sizes in a field tend to be smaller. There is both a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships. There is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes. There are prejudices (financial interest, political, or otherwise). The scientific field is hot and there are more scientific teams pursuing publication. Other factors include experimenter bias and white hat bias.
== Remedies == Publication bias can be contained through better-powered studies, enhanced research standards, and careful consideration of true and non-true relationships. Better-powered studies refer to large studies that deliver definitive results or test major concepts and lead to low-bias meta-analysis. Enhanced research standards such as the pre-registration of protocols, the registration of data collections, and adherence to established protocols are other techniques. To avoid false-positive results, the experimenter must consider the chances that they are testing a true or non-true relationship. This can be undertaken by properly assessing the false positive report probability based on the statistical power of the test and reconfirming (whenever ethically acceptable) established findings of prior studies known to have minimal bias.
=== Study registration ===
In September 2004, editors of prominent medical journals (including the New England Journal of Medicine, The Lancet, Annals of Internal Medicine, and JAMA) announced that they would no longer publish results of drug research sponsored by pharmaceutical companies unless that research was registered in a public clinical trials registry database from the start. Furthermore, some journals (e.g. Trials), encourage publication of study protocols in their journals. The World Health Organization (WHO) agreed that basic information about all clinical trials should be registered at the study's inception and that this information should be publicly accessible through the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. Additionally, the public availability of complete study protocols, alongside reports of trials, is becoming more common for studies.
== See also ==
== References ==
== External links == Lehrer, Jonah (13 December 2010). "The Truth Wears Off". The New Yorker. Retrieved 30 January 2020. Register of clinical trials conducted in the US and around the world, maintained by the National Library of Medicine, Bethesda Skeptic's Dictionary: positive outcome bias. Skeptic's Dictionary: file-drawer effect. Journal of Negative Results in Biomedicine The All Results Journals Journal of Articles in Support of the Null Hypothesis Psychfiledrawer.org: Archive for replication attempts in experimental psychology