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| title | chunk | source | category | tags | date_saved | instance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technological transitions | 3/3 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_transitions | reference | science, encyclopedia | 2026-05-05T07:12:49.516863+00:00 | kb-cron |
== Diffusion: transition phases == Diffusion of an innovation is the concept of how it is picked up by society, at what rate and why. The diffusion of a technological innovation into society can be considered in distinct phases. Pre-development is the gestation period where the new technology has yet to make an impact. Take-off is when the process of a system shift is beginning. A breakthrough is occurring when fundamental changes are occurring in existing structures through the interplay of economic, social and cultural forces. Once the rate of change has decreased and a new balance is achieved, stabilization is said to have occurred. A full transition involves an overhaul of existing rules and change of beliefs which takes time, typically spanning at least a generation. This process can be speeded up through seismic, unforeseen events such as war or economic strife. Geels proposed a similar four-phase approach which draws on the multi-level perspective (MLP) developed by Dutch scholars. Phase one sees the emergence of a novelty, born from the existing regime. Development then occurs in the niche level at phase two. As before, breakthrough then occurs at phase three. In the parlance of the MLP the new technology, having been developed at the niche level, is in competition with the established regime. To break through and achieve wide diffusion, external factors – 'windows of opportunity' – are required.
== Windows of opportunity == A number of possible circumstances can act as windows of opportunity for the diffusion of new technologies:
Internal technical problems in the existing regime. Those that cannot be solved by refinement of existing technologies act as a driver for the new. Problems external to the system. Such 'problems' are often determined by pressure groups and require wider societal or political backing. An example is environmental concerns. Changing user preferences. Opportunities are presented if existing technologies cannot meet user needs. Strategic advantage. Competition with rivals may necessitate innovation Complementary technology. The availability of which may enable a breakthrough Alongside external influences, internal drivers catalyse diffusion. These include economic factors such as the price performance ration. Socio-technical perspectives focus on the links between disparate social and technological elements. Following the breakthrough, the final phases see the new technology supersede the old.
== Societal relevance == The study of technological transitions has an impact beyond academic interest. The transitions referred to in the literature may relate to historic processes, such as the transportation transitions studied by Geels, but system changes are required to achieve a safe transition to a low-carbon economy. (). Current structural problems are apparent in a range of sectors. Dependency on oil is problematic in the energy sector due to availability, access and contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Transportation is a major user of energy causing significant emission of GHGs. Food production will need to keep pace with an ever-growing world population while overcoming challenges presented by global warming and transportation issues. Incremental change has provided some improvements but a more radical transition is required to achieve a more sustainable future. Developed from the work on technological transitions is the field of transition management. Within this is an attempt to shape the direction of change complex socio-technical systems to more sustainable patterns. Whereas work on technological transitions is largely based on historic processes, proponents of transition management seek to actively steer transitions in progress.
== Criticisms == Genus and Coles outlined a number of criticisms against the analysis of technological transitions, in particular when using the MLP. Empirical research on technological transitions occurring now has been limited, with the focus on historic transitions. Depending on the perspective on transition case studies they could be presented as having occurred on a different transition path to what was shown. For example, the bicycle could be considered an intermediate transport technology between the horse and the car. Judged from shorter different time-frame this could appear a transition in its own right. Determining the nature of a transition is problematic; when it started and ended, or whether one occurred in the sense of a radical innovation displacing an existing socio-technical regime. The perception of time casts doubt on whether a transition has occurred. If viewed over a long enough period even inert regimes may demonstrate radical change in the end. The MLP has also been criticised by scholars studying sustainability transitions using Social Practice Theories.
== See also == Evolutionary economics Kondratiev wave Technological change Technological innovation system Technology policy Technological revolution Transition Management (Governance)
== References ==