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| title | chunk | source | category | tags | date_saved | instance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megatsunami | 9/10 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megatsunami | reference | science, encyclopedia | 2026-05-05T07:35:36.838495+00:00 | kb-cron |
Geologists Dr. Simon Day and Dr. Steven Neal Ward consider that a megatsunami could be generated during an eruption of Cumbre Vieja on the volcanic ocean island of La Palma, in the Canary Islands, Spain. Day and Ward hypothesize that if such an eruption causes the western flank to fail, a megatsunami could be generated. In 1949, an eruption occurred at three of the volcano's vents – Duraznero, Hoyo Negro, and Llano del Banco. A local geologist, Juan Bonelli-Rubio, witnessed the eruption and recorded details on various phenomenon related to the eruption. Bonelli-Rubio visited the summit area of the volcano and found that a fissure about 2.5 kilometres (1.6 mi) long had opened on the east side of the summit. As a result, the western half of the volcano – which is the volcanically active arm of a triple-armed rift – had slipped approximately 2 metres (7 ft) downwards and 1 metre (3 ft) westwards towards the Atlantic Ocean. In 1971, an eruption occurred at the Teneguía vent at the southern end of the sub-aerial section of the volcano without any movement. The section affected by the 1949 eruption is currently stationary and does not appear to have moved since the initial rupture. Cumbre Vieja remained dormant until an eruption began on 19 September 2021. It is likely that several eruptions would be required before failure would occur on Cumbre Vieja. The western half of the volcano has an approximate volume of 500 cubic kilometres (120 cu mi) and an estimated mass of 1.5 trillion metric tons (1.7×1012 short tons). If it were to catastrophically slide into the ocean, it could generate a wave with an initial height of about 1,000 metres (3,300 ft) at the island, and a likely height of around 50 metres (200 ft) at the Caribbean and the Eastern North American seaboard when it runs ashore eight or more hours later. Tens of millions of lives could be lost in the cities and/or towns of St. John's, Halifax, Boston, New York, Baltimore, Washington, D.C., Miami, Havana and the rest of the eastern coasts of the United States and Canada, as well as many other cities on the Atlantic coast in Europe, South America and Africa. The likelihood of this happening is a matter of vigorous debate. Geologists and volcanologists are in general agreement that the initial study was flawed. The current geology does not suggest that a collapse is imminent. Indeed, it seems to be geologically impossible right now – the region conjectured as prone to collapse is too small and too stable to collapse within the next 10,000 years. A closer study of deposits left in the ocean from previous landslides suggests that a landslide would likely occur as a series of smaller collapses rather than a single landslide. A megatsunami does seem possible locally in the distant future as there is geological evidence from past deposits suggesting that a megatsunami occurred with marine material deposited 41 to 188 metres (135 to 617 ft) above sea level between 32,000 and 1.75 million years ago. This seems to have been local to Gran Canaria. Day and Ward have admitted that their original analysis of the danger was based on several worst case assumptions. A 2008 study examined this scenario and concluded that while it could cause a megatsunami, it would be local to the Canary Islands and would diminish in height, becoming a smaller tsunami by the time it reached the continents as the waves interfered and spread across the oceans.
=== Hawaii === Sharp cliffs and associated ocean debris at the Kohala Volcano, Lanai and Molokai indicate that landslides from the flank of the Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes in Hawaii may have triggered past megatsunamis, most recently at 120,000 BP. A tsunami event is also possible, with the tsunami potentially reaching up to about 1 kilometre (3,300 ft) in height. According to the documentary National Geographic's Ultimate Disaster: Tsunami, if a big landslide occurred at Mauna Loa or the Hilina Slump, a 30-metre (98 ft) tsunami would take only thirty minutes to reach Honolulu. There, hundreds of thousands of people could be killed as the tsunami could level Honolulu and travel 25 kilometres (16 mi) inland. Also, the West Coast of America and the entire Pacific Rim could potentially be affected. Other research suggests that such a single large landslide is not likely. Instead, it would collapse as a series of smaller landslides. In 2018, shortly after the beginning of the 2018 lower Puna eruption, a National Geographic article responded to such claims with "Will a monstrous landslide off the side of Kilauea trigger a monster tsunami bound for California? Short answer: No." In the same article, geologist Mika McKinnon stated:
there are submarine landslides, and submarine landslides do trigger tsunamis, but these are really small, localized tsunamis. They don't produce tsunamis that move across the ocean. In all likelihood, it wouldn't even impact the other Hawaiian islands. Another volcanologist, Janine Krippner, added:
People are worried about the catastrophic crashing of the volcano into the ocean. There's no evidence that this will happen. It is slowly – really slowly – moving toward the ocean, but it's been happening for a very long time. Despite this, evidence suggests that catastrophic collapses do occur on Hawaiian volcanoes and generate local tsunamis.