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| title | chunk | source | category | tags | date_saved | instance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simulation hypothesis | 5/6 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulation_hypothesis | reference | science, encyclopedia | 2026-05-05T07:10:30.034179+00:00 | kb-cron |
In many respects this point of view may be nothing more than a result of the fact that the notion of computation is the disease of our age—everywhere we look today we see examples of computers, computation, and information theory and thus we extrapolate this to our laws of physics. Indeed, thinking about computing as arising from faulty components, it seems as if the abstraction that uses perfectly operating computers is unlikely to exist as anything but a platonic ideal. Another critique of such a point of view is that there is no evidence for the kind of digitization that characterizes computers nor are there any predictions made by those who advocate such a view that have been experimentally confirmed.
=== Testing the hypothesis physically === A method to test one type of simulation hypothesis was proposed in 2012 by physicists Silas R. Beane, Zohreh Davoudi, and Martin J. Savage. Under the assumption of finite computational resources, the simulation of the universe would be performed by dividing the space-time continuum into a discrete set of points, which may result in observable effects. In analogy with the mini-simulations that lattice-gauge theorists run today to build up nuclei from the underlying theory of strong interactions (known as quantum chromodynamics), several observational consequences of a grid-like space-time have been studied in their work. Among proposed signatures is an anisotropy in the distribution of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays that, if observed, would be consistent with the simulation hypothesis according to these physicists. In 2017, Campbell et al. proposed several experiments aimed at testing the simulation hypothesis in their paper "On Testing the Simulation Theory".
== Reception == Astrophysicist Neil Degrasse Tyson said in a 2018 NBC News interview that he estimated the likelihood of the simulation hypothesis being correct at "better than 50-50 odds", adding "I wish I could summon a strong argument against it, but I can find none". However, in a subsequent interview with Chuck Nice on a YouTube episode of StarTalk, Tyson shared that his friend J. Richard Gott, a professor of astrophysical sciences at Princeton University, made him aware of a strong objection to the simulation hypothesis. The objection claims that the common trait that all hypothetical high-fidelity simulated universes possess is the ability to produce high-fidelity simulated universes. And since our current world does not possess this ability, it would mean that either humans are in the real universe, and therefore simulated universes have not yet been created, or that humans are the last in a very long chain of simulated universes, an observation that makes the simulation hypothesis seem less probable. Regarding this objection, Tyson remarked "that changes my life". Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, stated that the argument for the simulation hypothesis is "quite strong". In a podcast with Joe Rogan, Musk said "If you assume any rate of improvement at all, games will eventually be indistinguishable from reality" before concluding "that it's most likely we're in a simulation". At various other press conferences and events, Musk has also speculated that the likelihood of us living in a simulated reality or computer made by others is about 99.9%, and stated in a 2016 interview that he believed there was "a one in billion chance we're in base reality".
== Dream hypothesis == The idea that a dream could be considered a type of simulation capable of fooling the dreamer, and that perhaps even waking reality is entirely a dream, existed long before Bostrom's formulation. One of the first philosophers to question the distinction between reality and dreams was Zhuangzi, a Chinese philosopher of the 4th century BC. He phrased the problem as the well-known "Butterfly Dream", which went as follows: Once Zhuangzi dreamt he was a butterfly, a butterfly flitting and fluttering around, happy with himself and doing as he pleased. He didn't know he was Zhuangzi. Suddenly he woke up and there he was, solid and unmistakable Zhuangzi. But he didn't know if he was Zhuangzi who had dreamt he was a butterfly or a butterfly dreaming he was Zhuangzi. Between Zhuangzi and a butterfly there must be some distinction! This is called the Transformation of Things. (2, tr. Burton Watson 1968:49) The philosophical underpinnings of this argument are also brought up by Descartes, who was one of the first Western philosophers to do so. In Meditations on First Philosophy, he states "...there are no certain indications by which we may clearly distinguish wakefulness from sleep", and goes on to conclude that "It is possible that I am dreaming right now and that all of my perceptions are false". Chalmers (2003) discusses the dream hypothesis and notes that this comes in two distinct forms:
that he is currently dreaming, in which case many of his beliefs about the world are incorrect; that he has always been dreaming, in which case the objects he perceives actually exist, albeit in his imagination. Both the dream argument and the simulation hypothesis can be regarded as skeptical hypotheses. Another state of mind in which some argue an individual's perceptions have no physical basis in the real world is psychosis, though psychosis may have a physical basis in the real world and explanations may vary. In On Certainty, the philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein has argued that such skeptical hypotheses are unsinnig (i.e. non-sensical), as they doubt knowledge that is required in order to make sense of the hypotheses themselves. Bertrand Russell has argued that the dream hypothesis is not a logical impossibility, but that common sense as well as considerations of simplicity and inference to the best explanation rule against it. The dream hypothesis is also used to develop other philosophical concepts, such as Valberg's personal horizon: what this world would be internal to if this were all a dream. Lucid dreaming is characterized as an idea where the elements of dreaming and waking are combined to a point where the user knows they are dreaming, or waking perhaps.