5.7 KiB
| title | chunk | source | category | tags | date_saved | instance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kardashev scale | 8/17 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale | reference | science, encyclopedia | 2026-05-05T13:16:55.587707+00:00 | kb-cron |
Zoltan Galántai recognizes the important role that Kardashev's classification has played in the SETI program, but he believes that another scale is possible, without using energy consumption, by resorting to miniaturization. The hypothesis of Donald Tarter, researcher at SETI, is that a civilization based on nanotechnology would not need an ever-increasing amount of energy. A Type I civilization that masters local space travel could colonize its planetary system and even the Oort cloud without needing an amount of energy that would make it Type II. This scale loses its meaning beyond Type II, since it is impossible to predict the evolution of civilizations over long distances in a galactic colonization process. Finally, the Kardashev scale is the product of an era of insufficient scientific knowledge, which considered the possibility of stellar object CTA-102 as an artificial Type III source, whereas today we know that it is a galactic nucleus. In another article, Zoltan Galántai suggests considering another scale, no longer based on energy consumption, but on a civilization's ability to survive natural and cosmic disasters. Type I would describe a civilization capable of surviving a local natural disaster, like the Anasazi. A Type II civilization would have the means to withstand a regional or continental disaster, and finally Type III could face a global disaster such as an asteroid's impact, a supervolcano's eruption, or an ice age. Beyond the first three types are civilizations that have scattered throughout the galaxy. The Type IV civilization would still be vulnerable to some cosmic threats, while the Type V civilization would be technically immortal, as no cosmic catastrophe could reach it. The Kardashev scale can be a relevant tool for preventing catastrophes, whether human or natural, according to Richard Wilson, who relates this scale to the power of destruction, in TNT. A Type I civilization would use 25 megatons of equivalent TNT per second, a Type II civilization 4 × 109 times more (4 billion hydrogen bombs per second), while a Type III civilization would use 1011 times more.
== Progression through the types ==
=== Towards type I === According to Carl Sagan, Type I should be reached around 2100. Physicist and futurist Michio Kaku has suggested that, if humans increase their energy consumption at an average rate of 3 percent per year, they could reach Type I status in 100–200 years, Type II status in a few thousand years, and Type III status in 100,000 to a million years. Physicist Freeman Dyson has calculated that Type I should be reached in about 200 years, while Richard Carrigan has estimated that the Earth is just four-tenths of the way to Type I on the Sagan scale. If Type I is reached soon (in the year 3000 for Richard Wilson), it would be accompanied by profound social upheavals, but also by a significant risk of self-destruction. According to Per Calissendorff, energy consumption cannot be the main parameter to explain the transition from one type to another. Civilizations must have the means to maintain their growth rate despite climatic conditions and major natural disasters, even on the cosmic scale. A civilization moving towards Type II must have mastered space travel, interplanetary communication, stellar engineering, and climate. It must also have developed a planetary communication system, such as the Internet. For Michio Kaku, the only serious threat to a Type II civilization would be the explosion of a nearby supernova, while no known cosmic catastrophe would be capable of wiping out a Type III civilization. According to Philip T. Metzger, humanity has reached Type I, but faces an energy challenge. In his 2011 paper Nature's Way of Making Audacious Space Projects Viable, he states that the Earth's non-renewable energy sources are nearly exhausted; natural gas will be depleted by 2020–2030, coal by 2035, uranium by 2056, while oil production peaked in 2006–2008. Nuclear energy cannot fully meet the world's energy needs (it represented only 6% in 2011). In addition, renewable energy cannot meet the growing demand for energy. Most of the minerals used by humans are in danger of becoming scarce; 11 minerals are already classified as having passed their peak production. For Metzger, humanity must therefore undertake a "100-year project" aimed at building a spacecraft ("100 Year Starship") capable of accessing the vast energy resources of the Solar System. For Metzger, it is even probable that if extraterrestrials coveted the energy resources of our Solar System, they would not look for them on Earth, but on the various asteroids and planetoids. Robotics is the only way to access so many dispersed resources, and humanity should embark on a second long-term project, which Metzger calls the "robotsphere", that would begin with the energetic exploitation of the Moon (estimated at 2.3 × 1013 J/year). This first step would make it possible to reach Type II in 53 years. Then the robotsphere (self-replicating and self-learning automated probes) would extend to the rest of the Solar System. Current advances in artificial intelligence suggest that the foundations of a robotsphere could be reached early in the next century, beginning in 2100. Metzger sees eight benefits for humanity in building the 100 Year Starship, including zero launch costs because the spacecraft will be built in space by robots that can do so with little human assistance (drastically reducing manufacturing costs), the creation of a Solar System-wide economy, and the use of resources from celestial objects and possibly terraforming them.