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| title | chunk | source | category | tags | date_saved | instance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI aftermath scenarios | 1/3 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_aftermath_scenarios | reference | science, encyclopedia | 2026-05-05T16:30:58.334202+00:00 | kb-cron |
Some scholars believe that advances in artificial intelligence, or AI, will eventually lead to a semi-apocalyptic post-scarcity and post-work economy where intelligent machines can outperform humans in almost every, if not every, domain. The questions of what such a world might look like, and whether specific scenarios constitute utopias or dystopias, are the subject of active debate.
== Background ==
Most scientists believe that AI research will at some point lead to the creation of machines that are as intelligent, or more intelligent, than human beings in every domain of interest. There is no physical law precluding particles from being organised in ways that perform even more advanced computations than the arrangements of particles in human brains; therefore superintelligence is physically possible. In addition to potential algorithmic improvements over human brains, a digital brain can be many orders of magnitude larger and faster than a human brain, which was constrained in size by evolution to be small enough to fit through a birth canal. While there is no consensus on when artificial intelligence will outperform humans, many scholars argue that whenever it does happen, the introduction of a second species of intelligent life onto the planet will have far-reaching implications. Scholars often disagree with one another both about what types of post-AI scenarios are most likely, and about what types of post-AI scenarios would be most desirable. Finally, some dissenters argue that AI will never become as intelligent as humans, for example because the human race will already likely have destroyed itself before research has time to advance sufficiently to create artificial general intelligence.
== Postulates: robot labor and post-scarcity economy ==
All of the following "AI aftermath scenarios" of the aftermath of arbitrarily-advanced AI development are crucially dependent on two intertwined theses. The first thesis is that, at some point in the future, some kind of economic growth will continue until a "post-scarcity" economy is reached that could, unless extremely hyperconcentrated, effortlessly provide an extremely comfortable standard of living for a population equaling or, within reason, exceeding the current human population, without even requiring the bulk of the population to participate in the workforce. This economic growth could come from the continuation of existing growth trends and the refinement of existing technologies, or through future breakthroughs in emerging technologies such as nanotechnology and automation through robotics and futuristic advanced artificial intelligence. The second thesis is that advances in artificial intelligence will render humans unnecessary for the functioning of the economy: human labor declines in relative economic value if robots are easier to cheaply mass-produce then humans, more customizable than humans, and if they become more intelligent and capable than humans.
=== Cosmic endowment and limits to growth === The Universe may be spatially infinite; however, the accessible Universe is bounded by the cosmological event horizon of around 16 billion light years. Some physicists believe it plausible that nearest alien civilization may well be located more than 16 billion light years away; in this best-case expansion scenario, the human race could eventually, by colonizing a significant fraction of the accessible Universe, increase the accessible biosphere by perhaps 32 orders of magnitude. The twentieth century saw a partial "demographic transition" to lower birthrates associated with wealthier societies; however, in the very long run, intergenerational fertility correlations (whether due to natural selection or due to cultural transmission of large-family norms from parents to children) are predicted to result in an increase in fertility over time, in the absence of either mandated birth control or periodic Malthusian catastrophes.
== Scenarios ==
=== Libertarianism === Libertarian scenarios postulate that intelligent machines, uploaded humans, cyborgs, and unenhanced humans will coexist peacefully in a framework focused on respecting property rights. Because industrial productivity is no longer gated by scarce human labor, the value of land skyrockets compared to the price of goods; even remaining "Luddite" humans who owned or inherited land should be able to sell or lease a small piece of it to the more-productive robots in exchange for a perpetual annuity sufficient to easily indefinitely meet all of their basic financial needs. Such people can live as long as they choose to, and are free to engage in almost any activity they can conceive of, for pleasure or for self-actualization, without financial concern. Advanced technologies enable entirely new modes of thought and experience, thus adding to the palette of possible feelings. People in the future may even experience never-ending "gradients of bliss".
Evolution moves toward greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and greater levels of subtle attributes such as love. In every monotheistic tradition God is likewise described as all of these qualities, only without any limitation: infinite knowledge, infinite intelligence, infinite beauty, infinite creativity, infinite love, and so on. Of course, even the accelerating growth of evolution never achieves an infinite level, but as it explodes exponentially it certainly moves rapidly in that direction. So evolution moves inexorably toward this conception of God, although never quite reaching this ideal. We can regard, therefore, the freeing of our thinking from the severe limitations of its biological form to be an essentially spiritual undertaking. Such decentralized scenarios may be unstable in the long run, as the greediest elements of the super intelligent classes would have both the means and the motive to usurp the property of the unenhanced classes. Even if the mechanisms for ensuring legal property rights are both unbreakable and loophole-free, there may still be an ever-present danger of humans and cyborgs being "tricked" by the cleverest of the superintelligent machines into unwittingly signing over their own property. Suffering may be widespread, as sentient beings without property may die, and no mechanism prevents a being from reproducing up until the limits of his own inheritable resources, resulting in a multitude of that being's descendants scrabbling out an existence of minimal sustenance.