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| title | chunk | source | category | tags | date_saved | instance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When Prophecy Fails | 3/3 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails | reference | science, encyclopedia | 2026-05-05T09:31:22.517812+00:00 | kb-cron |
December 17. Ms. Keech received a phone call from person identifying himself as "Captain Video" from outer space, telling her that a saucer was to land in her backyard to pick her up at 4 o'clock in the afternoon. (Festinger considers this call to have been made by a practical joker reacting to press coverage of Keech's group.) Some of the group initially questioned the call, before accepting it and preparing themselves to be collected by the saucer, removing all metal objects from their persons. By 5:30 pm the group appeared to have given up, and were reluctant to discuss the issue of why the saucer had not arrived. When the matter was discussed, they agreed that the event had been a practice session. Ms. Keech received another message later that day that the saucer would pick them up at 1:30 am. The group waited for the saucer until 3:30 am then gave up. Before December 20. The group shuns publicity. Interviews are given only grudgingly. Access to Keech's house is only provided to those who can convince the group that they are true believers. The group evolves a belief system – provided by the automatic writing from the planet Clarion – to explain the details of the cataclysm, the reason for its occurrence, and the manner in which the group would be saved from the disaster. December 20. The group expects a visitor from outer space to call upon them at midnight and to escort them to a waiting spacecraft. As instructed, the group goes to great lengths to remove all metallic items from their persons. As midnight approaches, zippers, bra straps, and other objects are discarded. The group waits. 12:05 am. December 21. No visitor. Someone in the group notices that another clock in the room shows 11:55. The group agrees that it is not yet midnight. 12:10 am. The second clock strikes midnight. Still no visitor. The group sits in stunned silence. The cataclysm itself is no more than seven hours away. 4:00 am. The group has been sitting in stunned silence. A few attempts at finding explanations have failed. Keech begins to cry. 4:45 am. Another message by automatic writing is sent to Keech. It states, in effect, that the God of Earth has decided to spare the planet from destruction. The cataclysm has been called off: "The little group, sitting all night long, had spread so much light that God had saved the world from destruction." Afternoon, December 21. Newspapers are called; interviews are sought. In a reversal of its previous distaste for publicity, the group begins an urgent campaign to spread its message to as broad an audience as possible. December 24. The group had invited the press to publicise a new prediction that spacemen would land in a flying saucer and pick them up. While waiting, they sang Christmas carols, watched by "some 200 unruly spectators". The police had to be called to control the mob. The community was not happy with Mrs. Keech. December 26. A warrant was issued for Mrs. Keech and Dr. Armstrong for several charges.
== Aftermath == After the failure of the prediction, Martin was threatened with arrest and involuntary commitment, and left Chicago. She later founded the Association of Sananda and Sanat Kumara. Under the name Sister Thedra, she continued to practice channeling and participating in contactee groups until her death in 1992.
== Findings challenged == A 2025 article by Thomas Kelly argued that the main theses of the book are false and were known to be false by the authors. On the basis on archival material, Kelly accused the authors of fabricating psychic messages and interfering in a child welfare investigation. Festinger, Riecken and Schachter's study had previously been criticized on methodological grounds. Fernando Bermejo-Rubio summarizes these critiques:
To start with, When Prophecy Fails has been faulted on methodological grounds. The original observed phenomenon was not an uncontaminated series of events generated by a group in isolation. It was in fact mediated and studied by observers (social scientists and the press) and therefore subjected to interferences and distortions resulting from their presence. It has been remarked that often almost one-third of the membership of the group consisted of participant observers. More significantly, the social scientists themselves contributed to the events described. Furthermore, the media continually badgered the group to account for its commitment; thus, the increased proselytizing and affirmations of faith may have been influenced by media pressure. These conditions make it difficult to determine what might have happened if the group had been left on its own. A second problem is that the working hypothesis of the sociologists seems to have shaped, to a high degree, their perception of the events and the account given of the group, leading to an inaccurate report. That hypothesis involved identifying two phases, a period of secrecy in which the elect did not actively seek to gain followers or influence and, as a reaction to the disconfirmation of a prediction, a period of proselytizing. The portrayal of the group as merely based on a prediction, however, made Festinger and his colleagues overlook other dimensions (spiritual, moral, cultural) which might be crucial for the movement (Van Fossen 1988: 195).
== Related work == In 2021, psychologist Stuart Vyse used Festinger, Riecken and Schachter's research when looking at the QAnon conspiracy theory. Vyse asks "Now that the QAnon group's most important prophecy has failed, will they become disillusioned, more committed, or neither?" The first four conditions for increased fervour after disconfirmation are fulfilled with QAnon faithful, only the last condition of continuing social support is the question. As of April 2021, QDrops have stopped but with the Internet these believers will find each other and will continue to socially support each other. Vyse states that all depends on if Donald Trump reemerges or is marginalized and no other "demagogic leader emerges".
== See also ==
Unfulfilled Christian religious predictions New religious movement
== References ==
== Further reading == Festinger, Leon; Henry W. Riecken; Stanley Schachter (1956). When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World. University of Minnesota Press. ISBN 1-59147-727-1. {{cite book}}: ISBN / Date incompatibility (help) Reissued 2008 by Pinter & Martin with a foreword by Elliot Aronson, ISBN 978-1-905177-19-6 Pargament, Kenneth I. (1997). The Psychology of Religion and Coping: Theory, Research, Practice. Guilford Press. pp. 150–153, 340, section: "Compelling Coping in a Doomsday Cult". ISBN 1-57230-664-5. Petty, Richard E.; John T. Cacioppo (1996). Attitudes and Persuasion: Classic and Contemporary Approaches. Westview Press. pp. 139: "Effect of Disconfirming an Important Belief". ISBN 0-8133-3005-X. Prilleltensky, Isaac (1997). Critical Psychology: An Introduction. Sage Publications Inc. pp. 35, 37–38. ISBN 0-7619-5211-X. Newman, Dr. David M. (2006). Sociology: Exploring the Architecture of Everyday Life. Pine Forge Press. p. 86. ISBN 1-4129-2814-1. Stangor, Charles (2004). Social Groups in Action and Interaction. Psychology Press. pp. 42–43: "When Prophecy Fails". ISBN 1-84169-407-X.
== External links == Pinter & Martin Publishers, publishers of the 2008 edition