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| title | chunk | source | category | tags | date_saved | instance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When Prophecy Fails | 2/3 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails | reference | science, encyclopedia | 2026-05-05T09:31:22.517812+00:00 | kb-cron |
=== Methodology === The study was principally qualitative in nature, with data collected through participant observation, without the permission of the people being observed. The authors of the study and a selection of paid observers infiltrated groups of believers in two locations, in order to collect data as trusted insiders. Posing as people with a genuine personal interest in flying saucers and the group's belief system, the observers built rapport with the group members, aiming to take as passive a role as possible whilst gathering information on the group. Between them, the observers aimed to be present at all key events. Following each notable occurrence, each observer would attempt to excuse themselves in order to write up their notes or record them on audiotape while their memory was still fresh. They would record their notes in a variety of locations, including the bathroom of the house, the porch, or in a nearby hotel room that had been rented for the purpose. In addition to their own notes, the observers collected artifacts such as originals or copies of automatic writing produced by Martin, and transcripts of taped telephone calls that the research subjects themselves had recorded and lent to the observers. In order to protect the privacy of the research subjects, the authors used pseudonyms for all group members and the locations of the study.
=== Belief system of the research subjects === The belief system of the group evolved continuously before, during and after the study. Martin's early influences, as outlined in the study, included theosophy, Godfré Ray King, and John Ballou Newbrough, as well as a general interest in flying saucers and extraterrestrial visitors. Martin had previously been involved with L. Ron Hubbard's Dianetics movement, and she incorporated ideas from what later became Scientology. Martin began practising automatic writing, initially receiving messages allegedly from her deceased father. Martin believed her father was living in "the astral", which was populated by myriad spirits and beings. She believed that there were different frequencies of spiritual vibration, with less dense frequencies equating to a higher level of existence: higher levels were home to more developed spiritual beings. She went on to believe she was receiving messages from a high-level spiritual instructor called Elder Brother and other spiritual beings called The Guardians, who were living on planets called Clarion and Cerus. Her main source of messages became Sananda, who she understood to be the contemporary manifestation of the historical Jesus. Christianity was therefore central to the belief system as it evolved. As Martin began to draw a group of fellow believers around her, she developed the system alongside others who had studied other aspects of the occult and supposed extraterrestrial life, exposing the system with a wider range of influences. Another group member (pseudonym Bertha Blatsky) also claimed to be receiving and vocalising messages from spacemen, and Martin and "Blatsky" would sometimes undertake a verification process of each other's messages. Based on ongoing direct revelation, the belief system was highly fluid and adaptive. The group understood the Guardians to be benign spiritual teachers of humanity, newly able to make contact with humans through atmospheric changes brought about by the testing of nuclear weapons. They understood that extraterrestrial visits to earth were about to increase, and that it was possible for spacemen to visit in a human form or "sice", making it possible that any newcomer could be a spaceman in disguise. They also believed in a future cataclysmic event that would lead to widespread destruction and the purification of the Earth, and that selected humans would be rescued by space ship by the Guardians in advance of this event – this was the prediction that provided the focal point of the study. Following the failure of this prediction to materialise, those remaining in the group came to believe that their own activities had influenced events and that God had temporarily saved the world from destruction.
=== Sequence of events === Festinger, Riecken and Schachter reported the following sequence of events: