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# Practical Quantum Computing By 2030 Is Likely — And So Is Q‑Day

Brian Hopkins , VP, Emerging Tech Portfolio

Mar 11 2026

Our just-published report, The State Of Quantum Computing, 2026 , shows that the fault-tolerant foundation era has arrived sooner than expected. Practical business uses for quantum computing are likely to emerge by 2030 — much earlier than we anticipated in 2024. The possibility of Q-day, when quantum machines can break current public-key cryptography, will arrive sooner, as well.

As this field grows rapidly, we are applying more analyst talent to our coverage. David Mooter will lead Forrester’s quantum computing coverage, as it requires more focus than I can provide as VP of emerging technology and AI strategy analyst. Additionally, JT Thykattil , VP and research director, will serve as content editor on quantum computing coverage. Read on for the details.

## Quantum Utility Is Now Plausible By 2030

The quantum computing industry crossed an inflection point in 2025. Vendors moved beyond theoretical fault‑tolerant architectures into early engineering reality, shifting the measure of progress from raw qubit counts to error‑corrected logical qubits. This change reshaped our timeline: Practical quantum utility — the point at which gate‑modeled systems deliver commercially meaningful results — is now feasible within the next five years. Several advancements from 2024 to 2026 support this:

- Logical qubit breakthroughs are accelerating the transition to fault tolerance. Researchers demonstrated logical qubits that produce dramatically fewer errors than their physical counterparts. Quantinuum reported logical qubits achieving 22 times lower failure rates, with additional vendors setting new error‑correction performance records. These engineering steps bring us closer to the stable, long‑running quantum operations that meaningful workloads require.
- Credible roadmaps to large‑scale machines are emerging. Many vendors now have believable paths to 1,000+ physical qubits. IBM has committed to machines with 10,000 physical qubits by 2029 — an ambition that would have been dismissed as unrealistic only a few years ago.
- Hybrid quantum‑classical systems are showing early real‑world utility. Companies like P&G have already demonstrated value by combining quantum and classical solvers, using SAS’s quantum AI to reduce optimization runtimes from hours to minutes. These aren’t fully quantum breakthroughs, but they’re signs of what’s coming as logical qubit fidelity improves.

Taken together, these milestones make 2030 the most credible horizon yet for gate-modeled quantum systems capable of delivering real competitive advantage.

## Q‑Day Security Risk Is Likely By 2030

The same technological leaps bringing quantum utility within reach are also accelerating quantum risk, with our analysis projecting Q-day — the point when quantum computers can break mainstream public-key cryptography like RSA-2048 — by 2030. Key 2025 milestones include:

- Rapid advances are developing in quantum-enabled cryptanalysis. This includes a demonstration that 1,399 logical qubits could factor RSA-2028 in under a week and Oxford researchers achieving record-low quantum logic-gate error rates, both critical for cryptographically relevant workloads.
- Adversaries are already harvesting encrypted data. The intent is to decrypt it when quantum capabilities mature, putting organizations that rely on long-lived, sensitive information — like financial records, healthcare data, government archives, and intellectual property — at increasing risk every day post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration is delayed.

The window to act safely is closing fast, and the transition to quantum-safe security must start now.

## Algorithmic Innovation Can Advance The Timeline Overnight

Quantum progress isn’t just about increasing qubits, as smarter algorithms are equally crucial. Our 2026 report highlights Google’s Quantum Echoes . The linked blog post discusses how algorithmic innovations can greatly reduce quantum circuit complexity and enable new workloads on early fault-tolerant machines. Recent industry developments, such as from AQTI, underline those algorithmic advances, as well. Such improvements can shift risk timelines by lowering the resources needed for hard cryptographic challenges. In short, leaders shouldn’t focus solely on hardware — monitoring algorithmic breakthroughs is essential.

## Meet David Mooter: Forrester’s New Lead For Quantum Computing

As quantum enters a period of rapid evolution, Forrester is expanding its leadership on the topic. David Mooter will now lead our quantum computing coverage. David brings deep expertise in emerging technology architecture, API strategy, and long‑horizon innovation — a perfect match for this moment.

In his blog post, From APIs To Qubits: My Superposition Of Tech Coverage , David shares his perspective on why quantum is a natural extension of his work and how he’ll help clients navigate the coming disruption. I encourage you to read it and follow his upcoming coverage, which will build on the foundation we established in this research.

## What Technology Leaders Must Do Now

The State Of Quantum Computing, 2026 outlines clear actions for preparing both for early quantum utility and for Q‑day. Most urgently, start quantum‑safe security implementation immediately.

- Begin a full cryptographic inventory, identify systems relying on vulnerable algorithms, and prioritize migration to NIST‑approved PQC. Long‑lived data and high‑sensitivity stores should be first in line.
- Vendors must demonstrate PQC readiness as a condition for future engagement.
- Read Technology Leaders Must Work Together To Prepare For Q‑Day . Quantum computing is still emerging, but the strategic preparation window is now, especially for industries such as banking, pharmaceuticals, logistics, and energy where quantum could have major impact.

Nonclients, please contact to us to learn how to access our research and analysts covering both quantum computing and security at Forrester.com.

###### Categories

- Emerging Technology
- security risk management

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