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+title: "Prediction"
+chunk: 1/4
+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:46.785158+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+A prediction (from Latin  prae- 'before' and  dictum 'something said') or  forecast is a statement about a future event or about future data. Predictions are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge of forecasters. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference between "prediction" and "estimation"; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations.
+Future events are necessarily uncertain, so guaranteed accurate information about the future is impossible. Prediction can be useful to assist in making plans about possible developments.
+
+== Opinion ==
+In a non-statistical sense, the term "prediction" is often used to refer to an informed guess or opinion.
+A prediction of this kind might be informed by a predicting person's abductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, deductive reasoning, and experience; and may be useful—if the predicting person is a knowledgeable person in the field.
+The Delphi method is a technique for eliciting such expert-judgement-based predictions in a controlled way.  This type of prediction might be perceived as consistent with statistical techniques in the sense that, at minimum, the "data" being used is the predicting expert's cognitive experiences forming an intuitive "probability curve."
+
+== Statistics ==
+In statistics, prediction is a part of statistical inference. One particular approach to such inference is known as predictive inference, but the prediction can be undertaken within any of the several approaches to statistical inference. Indeed, one possible description of statistics is that it provides a means of transferring knowledge about a sample of a population to the whole population, and to other related populations, which is not necessarily the same as prediction over time. When information is transferred across time, often to specific points in time, the process is known as forecasting. Forecasting usually requires time series methods, while prediction is often performed on cross-sectional data.
+Statistical techniques used for prediction include regression and its various sub-categories such as linear regression, generalized linear models (logistic regression, Poisson regression, Probit regression), etc. In case of forecasting, autoregressive moving average models and vector autoregression models can be utilized. When these and/or related, generalized set of regression or machine learning methods are deployed in commercial usage, the field is known as predictive analytics.
+In many applications, such as time series analysis, it is possible to estimate the models that generate the observations. If models can be expressed as transfer functions or in terms of state-space parameters then smoothed, filtered and predicted data estimates can be calculated.  If the underlying generating models are linear then a minimum-variance Kalman filter and a minimum-variance smoother may be used to recover data of interest from noisy measurements. These techniques rely on one-step-ahead predictors (which minimise the variance of the prediction error). When the generating models are nonlinear then stepwise linearizations may be applied within Extended Kalman Filter and smoother recursions. However, in nonlinear cases, optimum minimum-variance performance guarantees no longer apply.
+To use regression analysis for prediction, data are collected on the variable that is to be predicted, called the dependent variable or response variable, and on one or more variables whose values are hypothesized to influence it, called independent variables or explanatory variables. A functional form, often linear, is hypothesized for the postulated causal relationship, and the parameters of the function are estimated from the data—that is, are chosen so as to optimize is some way the fit of the function, thus parameterized, to the data. That is the estimation step. For the prediction step, explanatory variable values that are deemed relevant to future (or current but not yet observed) values of the dependent variable are input to the parameterized function to generate predictions for the dependent variable.
+
+=== Machine learning and artificial intelligence ===
+In recent decades, prediction has become a central task in machine learning and artificial intelligence research. 
+Supervised learning algorithms, such as support vector machines, decision trees, and neural networks, 
+are trained on historical datasets to predict outcomes on new, unseen data. These models are widely applied in domains such as 
+natural language processing, computer vision, health informatics, and financial technology. 
+Recent studies have emphasized the importance of model interpretability and fairness, since predictions can influence 
+critical decisions in healthcare, criminal justice, and public policy.
+An unbiased performance estimate of a model can be obtained on hold-out test sets. The predictions can visually be compared to the ground truth in a parity plot.
+
+== Science ==

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+title: "Prediction"
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+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:46.785158+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+In science, a prediction is a rigorous, often quantitative, statement, forecasting what would be observed under specific conditions; for example, according to theories of gravity, if an apple fell from a tree it would be seen to move towards the center of the Earth with a specified and constant acceleration. The scientific method is built on testing statements that are logical consequences of scientific theories. This is done through repeatable experiments or observational studies.
+A scientific theory whose predictions are contradicted by observations and evidence will be rejected. New theories that generate many new predictions can more easily be supported or falsified (see predictive power). Notions that make no testable predictions are usually considered not to be part of science (protoscience or nescience) until testable predictions can be made.
+Mathematical equations and models, and computer models, are frequently used to describe the past and future behaviour of a process within the boundaries of that model. In some cases the probability of an outcome, rather than a specific outcome, can be predicted, for example in much of quantum physics.
+In microprocessors, branch prediction permits avoidance of pipeline emptying at branch instructions.
+In engineering, possible failure modes are predicted and avoided by correcting the failure mechanism causing the failure.
+Accurate prediction and forecasting are very difficult in some areas, such as natural disasters, pandemics, demography, population dynamics and meteorology. For example, it is possible to predict the occurrence of solar cycles, but their exact timing and magnitude is much more difficult (see picture to right).
+In materials engineering it is also possible to predict the life time of a material with a mathematical model.
+In medical science predictive and prognostic biomarkers can be used to predict patient outcomes in response to various treatment or the probability of a clinical event.
+
+=== Hypothesis ===
+Established science makes useful predictions which are often extremely reliable and accurate; for example, eclipses are routinely predicted.
+New theories make predictions which allow them to be disproved by reality. For example, predicting the structure of crystals at the atomic level is a current research challenge. In the early 20th century the scientific consensus was that there existed an absolute frame of reference, which was given the name luminiferous ether. The existence of this absolute frame was deemed necessary for consistency with the established idea that the speed of light is constant. The famous Michelson–Morley experiment demonstrated that predictions deduced from this concept were not borne out in reality, thus disproving the theory of an absolute frame of reference. The special theory of relativity was proposed by Einstein as an explanation for the seeming inconsistency between the constancy of the speed of light and the non-existence of a special, preferred or absolute frame of reference.
+Albert Einstein's theory of general relativity could not easily be tested as it did not produce any effects observable on a terrestrial scale. However, as one of the first tests of general relativity, the theory predicted that large masses such as stars would bend light, in contradiction to accepted theory; this was observed in a 1919 eclipse.
+
+== Medicine and healthcare ==
+
+=== Predictive medicine ===
+
+=== Prognosis ===
+
+=== Clinical prediction rules ===
+
+== Finance ==
+
+Mathematical models of stock market behaviour (and economic behaviour in general) are also unreliable in predicting future behaviour. Among other reasons, this is because economic events may span several years, and the world is changing over a similar time frame, thus invalidating the relevance of past observations to the present. Thus there are an extremely small number (of the order of 1) of relevant past data points from which to project the future. In addition, it is generally believed that stock market prices already take into account all the information available to predict the future, and subsequent movements must therefore be the result of unforeseen events. Consequently, it is extremely difficult for a stock investor to anticipate or predict a stock market boom, or a stock market crash. In contrast to predicting the actual stock return, forecasting of broad economic trends tends to have better accuracy. Such analysis is provided by both non-profit groups as well as by for-profit private institutions.
+Some correlation has been seen between actual stock market movements and prediction data from large groups in surveys and prediction games.
+An actuary uses actuarial science to assess and predict future business risk, such that the risk(s) can be mitigated. For example, in insurance an actuary would use a life table (which incorporates the historical experience of mortality rates and sometimes an estimate of future trends) to project life expectancy.

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+title: "Prediction"
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+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:46.785158+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+== Sports ==
+Predicting the outcome of sporting events is a business which has grown in popularity in recent years.  Handicappers predict the outcome of games using a variety of mathematical formulas, simulation models or qualitative analysis.  Early, well known sports bettors, such as Jimmy the Greek, were believed to have access to information that gave them an edge.  Information ranged from personal issues, such as gambling or drinking to undisclosed injuries; anything that may affect the performance of a player on the field.
+Recent times have changed the way sports are predicted.  Predictions now typically consist of two distinct approaches: Situational plays and statistical based models.  Situational plays are much more difficult to measure because they usually involve the motivation of a team.  Dan Gordon, noted handicapper, wrote "Without an emotional edge in a game in addition to value in a line, I won't put my money on it".  These types of plays consist of: Betting on the home underdog, betting against Monday Night winners if they are a favorite next week, betting the underdog in "look ahead" games etc.  As situational plays become more widely known they become less useful because they will impact the way the line is set.
+The widespread use of technology has brought with it more modern sports betting systems.  These systems are typically algorithms and simulation models based on regression analysis. Jeff Sagarin, a sports statistician, has brought attention to sports by having the results of his models published in USA Today.  He is currently paid as a consultant by the Dallas Mavericks for his advice on lineups and the use of his Winval system, which evaluates free agents. Brian Burke, a former Navy fighter pilot turned sports statistician, has published his results of using regression analysis to predict the outcome of NFL games. Ken Pomeroy is widely accepted as a leading authority on college basketball statistics.  His website includes his College Basketball Ratings, a tempo based statistics system.  Some statisticians have become very famous for having successful prediction systems.  Dare wrote "the effective odds for sports betting and horse racing are a direct result of human decisions and can therefore potentially exhibit consistent error".  Unlike other games offered in a casino, prediction in sporting events can be both logical and consistent.
+In modern times, especially in widely followed sports such as football and basketball, game and player statistics, as well as team and league data, have evolved into a true scientific discipline. By leveraging numerous parameters such as historical match results and individual player performance, it has become possible to generate highly accurate predictions. There are now well-known systems that conduct scientific studies on football predictions, supported by advanced mathematics and artificial intelligence. One such system, Soccerseer, is capable of producing predictions with a remarkably high level of accuracy.
+Other more advance models include those based on Bayesian networks, which are causal probabilistic models commonly used for risk analysis and decision support. Based on this kind of mathematical modelling, Constantinou et al., have developed models for predicting the outcome of association football matches. What makes these models interesting is that, apart from taking into consideration relevant historical data, they also incorporate all these vague subjective factors, like availability of key players, team fatigue, team motivation and so on. They provide the user with the ability to include their best guesses about things that there are no hard facts available. This additional information is then combined with historical facts to provide a revised prediction for future match outcomes. The initial results based on these modelling practices are encouraging since they have demonstrated consistent profitability against published market odds.
+Nowadays sport betting is a huge business; there are many websites (systems) alongside betting sites, which give tips or predictions for future games. Some of these prediction websites (tipsters) are based on human predictions, but others on computer software sometimes called prediction robots or bots. Prediction bots can use different amount of data and algorithms and because of that their accuracy may vary.
+
+== Social science ==
+Prediction in the non-economic social sciences differs from the natural sciences and includes multiple alternative methods such as trend projection, forecasting, scenario-building and Delphi surveys. The oil company Shell is particularly well known for its scenario-building activities.
+One reason for the peculiarity of societal prediction is that in the social sciences, "predictors are part of the social context about which they are trying to make a prediction and may influence that context in the process". As a consequence, societal predictions can become self-destructing. For example, a forecast that a large percentage of a population will become HIV infected based on existing trends may cause more people to avoid risky behavior and thus reduce the HIV infection rate, invalidating the forecast (which might have remained correct if it had not been publicly known). Or, a prediction that cybersecurity will become a major issue may cause organizations to implement more security cybersecurity measures, thus limiting the issue.
+
+In politics it is common to attempt to predict the outcome of elections via political forecasting techniques (or assess the popularity of politicians) through the use of opinion polls. Prediction games have been used by many corporations and governments to learn about the most likely outcome of future events.
+
+== Prophecy ==

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+title: "Prediction"
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+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:46.785158+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+Predictions have often been made, from antiquity until the present, by using paranormal or supernatural means such as prophecy or by observing omens. Methods including water divining, astrology, numerology, fortune telling, interpretation of dreams, and many other forms of divination, have been used for millennia to attempt to predict the future. These means of prediction have not been proven by scientific experiments.
+In literature, vision and prophecy are literary devices used to present a possible timeline of future events.  They can be distinguished by vision referring to what an individual sees happen. The book of Revelation, in the New Testament, thus uses vision as a literary device in this regard. It is also prophecy or prophetic literature when it is related by an individual in a sermon or other public forum.
+Divination is the attempt to gain insight into a question or situation by way of an occultic standardized process or ritual. It is an integral part of witchcraft and has been used in various forms for thousands of years. Diviners ascertain their interpretations of how a querent should proceed by reading signs, events, or omens, or through alleged contact with a supernatural agency, most often described as an angel or a god though viewed by Christians and Jews as a fallen angel or demon.
+
+=== Artificial intelligence in astrology ===
+In the 21st century, astrology has increasingly intersected with artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. 
+Academic research has explored the use of AI models for astrological predictions, 
+while media outlets have noted the rise of "astro-tech" startups and apps using chatbots and algorithmic models to deliver personalized readings. 
+Examples include AI-driven astrology chatbots such as KundliGPT, which use natural language processing to generate birth chart readings and answer user queries.
+
+== Fiction ==
+Fiction (especially fantasy, forecasting and science fiction) often features instances of prediction achieved by unconventional means. Science fiction of the past predicted various modern technologies.
+In fantasy literature, predictions are often obtained through magic or prophecy, sometimes referring back to old traditions. For example, in J. R. R. Tolkien's The Lord of the Rings, many of the characters possess an awareness of events extending into the future, sometimes as prophecies, sometimes as more-or-less vague 'feelings'. The character Galadriel, in addition, employs a water "mirror" to show images, sometimes of possible future events.
+In some of Philip K. Dick's stories, mutant humans called precogs can foresee the future (ranging from days to years). In the story called The Golden Man, an exceptional mutant can predict the future to an indefinite range (presumably up to his death), and thus becomes completely non-human, an animal that follows the predicted paths automatically. Precogs also play an essential role in another of Dick's stories, The Minority Report, which was turned into a film by Steven Spielberg in 2002.
+In the Foundation series by Isaac Asimov, a mathematician finds out that historical events (up to some detail) can be theoretically modelled using equations, and then spends years trying to put the theory in practice. The new science of psychohistory founded upon his success can simulate history and extrapolate the present into the future.
+In Frank Herbert's sequels to 1965's Dune, his characters are dealing with the repercussions of being able to see the possible futures and select amongst them. Herbert sees this as a trap of stagnation, and his characters follow a so-called "Golden Path" out of the trap.
+In Ursula K. Le Guin's The Left Hand of Darkness, the humanoid inhabitants of planet Gethen have mastered the art of prophecy and routinely produce data on past, present or future events on request. In this story, this was a minor plot device.
+
+== Poetry ==
+For the ancients, prediction, prophesy, and poetry were often intertwined.  Prophecies were given in verse, and a word for poet in Latin is “vates” or prophet. Both poets and prophets claimed to be inspired by forces outside themselves. In contemporary cultures, theological revelation and poetry are typically seen as distinct and often even as opposed to each other. Yet the two still are often understood together as symbiotic in their origins, aims, and purposes.
+
+== See also ==
+Expectation – Anticipation that a future event or consequence is likelyPages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets
+Forecasting – Making predictions with available data
+Futures studies – Study of postulating possible futures
+Omen – Future-predicting phenomenon
+Oracle – Provider of prophecies or insights
+Predictability – Degree to which a correct prediction of a system's state can be made
+Prediction market – Platforms for betting on events
+Predictive modelling – Form of modelling that uses statistics to predict outcomes
+Prognosis – Medical term for the likely development of a disease
+Prognostics – Engineering discipline
+Reference class forecasting – Method of predicting the future
+Regression analysis – Set of statistical processes for estimating the relationships among variables
+Thought experiment – Hypothetical situation
+Trend estimation – Statistical technique to aid interpretation of dataPages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets
+
+== Footnotes ==
+
+== Further reading ==
+Ialenti, Vincent (2020). Deep Time Reckoning: How Future Thinking Can Help Earth Now. The MIT Press. ISBN 9780262539265.
+Rescher, Nicholas (1998). Predicting the future: An introduction to the theory of forecasting. State University of New York Press. ISBN 0-7914-3553-9.
+Tetlock, Philip E.; Gardner, Dan (2016). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown. ISBN 978-0804136716.

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+title: "Preference test"
+chunk: 1/1
+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preference_test"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:47.961073+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+A preference test is an experiment in which animals are allowed free access to multiple environments which differ in one or more ways.  Various aspects of the animal's behaviour can be measured with respect to the alternative environments, such as latency and frequency of entry, duration of time spent, range of activities observed, or relative consumption of a goal object in the environment. These measures can be recorded either by the experimenter or by motion detecting software. Strength of preference can be inferred by the magnitude of the difference in the response, but see "Advantages and disadvantages" below. Statistical testing is used to determine whether observed differences in such measures support the conclusion that preference or aversion has occurred.   Prior to testing, the animals are usually given the opportunity to explore the environments to habituate and reduce the effects of novelty.
+Preference tests can be used to test for preferences of only one characteristic of an environment, e.g. cage colour, or multiple characteristics e.g. a choice between hamster wheel, Habitrail tunnels or additional empty space for extended locomotion.
+
+
+== Types of test ==
+
+
+=== Two choices ===
+The simplest of preference tests offers a choice between two alternatives. This can be done by putting different goal boxes at the ends of the arms of a T-shaped maze, or having a chamber divided into differing halves. A famous example of this simple method is an investigation of the preferences of chickens for different types of wire floor in battery cages. Two types of metal mesh flooring were being used in the 1950s; one type was a large, open mesh using thick wire, the other was a smaller mesh size but the wire was considerably thinner. A prestigious committee, the Brambell Committee, conducting an investigation into farm animal welfare concluded the thicker mesh should be used as this was likely to be more comfortable for the chickens. However, preference tests showed that chickens preferred the thinner wire. Photographs taken from under the cages showed that the thinner mesh offered more points of contact for the feet than the thick mesh, thereby spreading the load on the hens' feet and presumably feeling more comfortable to the birds.
+
+
+=== Multiple choices ===
+The number of choices that can be offered is theoretically limitless for some preference tests, e.g., light intensity, cage size, food types; however, the number is often limited by experimental practicalities, current practice (e.g., animal caging systems) or costs.  Furthermore, animals usually investigate all areas of the apparatus in a behaviour called "information gathering", even those with minor preference, so the more choices that are available may dilute the data on the dominant preference(s).
+
+
+=== Choices with a cost ===
+ 
+Most preference tests involve no 'cost' for making a choice, so they do not indicate the strength of an animal's motivation or need to obtain the outcome of the choice.  For example, if a laboratory mouse is offered three sizes of cage space it may prefer one of them, but this choice does not indicate whether the mouse 'needs' that particular space, or whether it has a relatively slight preference for it. To measure an animal's motivation toward a choice one may perform a "consumer demand test." In this sort of test, the choice involves some "cost" to the animal, such as physical effort (e.g., lever pressing, weighted door).
+
+
+== Uses ==
+Preference tests have been used widely in the study of animal behaviour and motivation, e.g.:
+
+
+=== Animal housing and husbandry ===
+Colour of cages for laboratory mice
+Desire to self-select stress-reducing drugs in barren cages
+
+
+=== Sensory capacities ===
+Illumination preferences and sensory capacity of turkeys
+
+
+=== Animal welfare ===
+Cognitive bias studies
+
+
+=== Animal communication ===
+Social learning
+
+
+=== Human pharmacology ===
+The radial arm maze has been used to assess how drugs affect memory performance. It has also been shown to be responsive in distinguishing the cognitive effects of an array of toxicants.
+
+
+=== Preferences of wild animals ===
+There have been relatively few studies on the preferences of wild animals.  A recent study has shown that feral pigeons do not discriminate drinking water according to its content of metabolic wastes, such as uric acid or urea (mimicking faeces- or urine-pollution by birds or mammals respectively).
+
+
+== Advantages and disadvantages ==
+
+
+=== Advantages ===
+A major advantage of preference tests is that we can gain objective data about animal motivation from the animal's perspective (largely) without being influenced by attributing human emotions or human senses to the animals.
+
+
+=== Disadvantages and limitations ===
+Preference tests give an indication only of relative preferences for the offered variants, not the absolute need for any of the variants. This can be overcome by placing costs on gaining access to the variants (see above).
+Animals can only make a choice between the variants offered. These might be limited by our current understanding of the animals' motivations and senses.
+Some variants may offer substitutability of use.  For example, offering semi-aquatic mink a bath of water means the water can be used for swimming, drinking and washing, rather than just one activity per se.
+Preference tests sometimes allow access to the variants outside of the testing period ('open economy'), thereby allowing compensatory access outside of the period of observation.  More rigorous studies prevent this access ('closed economy').
+It can be difficult to account for minority preferences.  For example, consider the duration of human occupation of rooms in a house as an indication of preference.  We probably occupy the living room and bedroom for the greatest durations of time, indicating these are the most preferred rooms; however, although we probably spend least time in the bathroom, making it the minority preference, this does not necessarily mean the bathroom is the least preferred room at all times of the day, i.e. minority preference can be important.
+Preferences can vary throughout the day.  Well designed studies can account for this complication.
+Animals sometimes behave for proximate considerations rather than ultimate fitness. For example, a dog which has had a painful visit to the vet may prefer not to go to the vet subsequently even though it will ultimately benefit the dog's health.
+'Inappropriate' responses.  This happens particularly when the animals have not evolved appropriate responses to the offered variants.  For example, rats will show a preference for saccharin solution compared to unadulterated water. This is because the saccharin has been designed to taste as if it contains nutrients (sugars) although it does not.
+
+
+== See also ==
+Barnes maze
+Oasis maze
+
+
+== References ==

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+title: "Principle of similitude"
+chunk: 1/1
+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_similitude"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:49.120086+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+The principle of similitude is a supplement to the scientific method advocated by  John Strutt (Lord Rayleigh) (1842–1919) that requires that any suggested scientific law be examined for its relationship to similar laws.
+The principle of similitude is very often used in scientific studies. For example, the study of blood flow known as hemodynamics. This study sometimes require the modeling of blood vessels in vitro. Here, the principle of similitude plays a huge role in ensuring the conditions of the model reproduces all aspects of behavior as the blood vessel in study. 
+Various techniques are implemented when applying the principle of similitude. A well known technique is dimensional analysis.
+
+
+== References ==
+Lord Rayleigh (1915). "The principle of similitude". Nature. 95 (66): 591. Bibcode:1915Natur..95...66R. doi:10.1038/095066c0.

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+title: "Probabilistic logic"
+chunk: 1/2
+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabilistic_logic"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:50.306655+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+Probabilistic logic (also probability logic and probabilistic reasoning) involves the use of probability and logic to deal with uncertain situations. Probabilistic logic extends traditional logic truth tables with probabilistic expressions. A difficulty of probabilistic logics is their tendency to multiply the computational complexities of their probabilistic and logical components.  Other difficulties include the possibility of counter-intuitive results, such as in case of belief fusion in Dempster–Shafer theory. Source trust and epistemic uncertainty about the probabilities they provide, such as defined in subjective logic, are additional elements to consider. The need to deal with a broad variety of contexts and issues has led to many different proposals.
+
+== Logical background ==
+There are numerous proposals for probabilistic logics. Very roughly, they can be categorized into two different classes: those logics that attempt to make a probabilistic extension to logical entailment, such as Markov logic networks, and those that attempt to address the problems of uncertainty and lack of evidence (evidentiary logics).
+That the concept of probability can have different meanings may be understood by noting that, despite the mathematization of probability in the Enlightenment, mathematical probability theory remains, to this very day, entirely unused in criminal courtrooms, when evaluating the "probability" of the guilt of a suspected criminal.
+More precisely, in evidentiary logic, there is a need to distinguish the objective truth of a statement from our decision about the truth of that statement, which in turn must be distinguished from our confidence in its truth: thus, a suspect's real guilt is not necessarily the same as the judge's decision on guilt, which in turn is not the same as assigning a numerical probability to the commission of the crime, and deciding whether it is above a numerical threshold of guilt.  The verdict on a single suspect may be guilty or not guilty with some uncertainty, just as the flipping of a coin may be predicted as heads or tails with some uncertainty.  Given a large collection of suspects, a certain percentage may be guilty, just as the probability of flipping "heads" is one-half. However, it is incorrect to take this law of averages with regard to a single criminal (or single coin-flip): the criminal is no more "a little bit guilty" than predicting a single coin flip to be "a little bit heads and a little bit tails": we are merely uncertain as to which it is.  Expressing uncertainty as a numerical probability may be acceptable when making scientific measurements of physical quantities, but it is merely a mathematical model of the uncertainty we perceive in the context of "common sense" reasoning and logic.  Just as in courtroom reasoning, the goal of employing uncertain inference is to gather evidence to strengthen the confidence of a proposition, as opposed to performing some sort of probabilistic entailment.
+
+== Historical context ==
+Historically, attempts to quantify probabilistic reasoning date back to antiquity. There was a particularly strong interest starting in the 12th century, with the work of the Scholastics, with the invention of the half-proof (so that two half-proofs are sufficient to prove guilt), the elucidation of moral certainty (sufficient certainty to act upon, but short of absolute certainty), the development of Catholic probabilism (the idea that it is always safe to follow the established rules of doctrine or the opinion of experts, even when they are less probable), the case-based reasoning of casuistry, and the scandal of Laxism (whereby probabilism was used to give support to almost any statement at all, it being possible to find an expert opinion in support of almost any proposition.).
+
+== Modern proposals ==
+Below is a list of proposals for probabilistic and evidentiary extensions to classical and predicate logic.

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+title: "Probabilistic logic"
+chunk: 2/2
+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabilistic_logic"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:50.306655+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+The term "probabilistic logic" was first used by John von Neumann in a series of Caltech lectures 1952 and 1956 paper "Probabilistic logics and the synthesis of reliable organisms from unreliable components", and subsequently in a paper by Nils Nilsson published in 1986, where the truth values of sentences are probabilities. The proposed semantical generalization induces a probabilistic logical entailment, which reduces to ordinary logical entailment when the probabilities of all sentences are either 0 or 1. This generalization applies to any logical system for which the consistency of a finite set of sentences can be established.
+Gaifman and Snir have developed a globally consistent and empirically satisfactory unification of classic probability theory  and first-order logic that is suitable for inductive reasoning. Their theory assigns probabilities or degrees of beliefs to sentences consistent with the knowledge base (probability 1 for facts and axioms), consistent with the standard (Kolmogorov) probability axioms and logical deduction, and allows (Bayesian) inductive reasoning and learning in the limit. Most importantly, unlike most alternative proposals, it allows confirmation of universally quantified hypotheses. The theory has also been extended to higher-order logic. Both solutions are purely theoretical but have spawned practical approximations.
+The central concept in the theory of subjective logic is opinions about some of the propositional variables involved in the given logical sentences. A binomial opinion applies to a single proposition and is represented as a 3-dimensional extension of a single probability value to express probabilistic and epistemic uncertainty about the truth of the proposition. For the computation of derived opinions based on a structure of argument opinions, the theory proposes respective operators for various logical connectives, such as e.g. multiplication (AND), comultiplication (OR), division (UN-AND) and co-division (UN-OR) of opinions, conditional deduction (MP) and abduction (MT)., as well as Bayes' theorem.
+The approximate reasoning formalism proposed by fuzzy logic can be used to obtain a logic in which the models are the probability distributions and the theories are the lower envelopes. In such a logic the question of the consistency of the available information is strictly related to that of the coherence of partial probabilistic assignment and therefore with Dutch book phenomena.
+Markov logic networks implement a form of uncertain inference based on the maximum entropy principle—the idea that probabilities should be assigned in such a way as to maximize entropy, in analogy with the way that Markov chains assign probabilities to finite-state machine transitions.
+Systems such as Ben Goertzel's Probabilistic Logic Networks (PLN) add an explicit confidence ranking, as well as a probability to atoms and sentences.  The rules of deduction and induction incorporate this uncertainty, thus side-stepping difficulties in purely Bayesian approaches to logic (including Markov logic), while also avoiding the paradoxes of Dempster–Shafer theory.  The implementation of PLN attempts to use and generalize algorithms from logic programming, subject to these extensions.
+In the field of probabilistic argumentation, various formal frameworks have been put forward. The framework of "probabilistic labellings", for example, refers to probability spaces where a sample space is a set of labellings of argumentation graphs. In the framework of "probabilistic argumentation systems" probabilities are not directly attached to arguments or logical sentences. Instead it is assumed that a particular subset 
+  
+    
+      
+        W
+      
+    
+    {\displaystyle W}
+  
+ of the variables 
+  
+    
+      
+        V
+      
+    
+    {\displaystyle V}
+  
+ involved in the sentences defines a probability space over the corresponding sub-σ-algebra. This induces two distinct probability measures with respect to 
+  
+    
+      
+        V
+      
+    
+    {\displaystyle V}
+  
+, which are called degree of support and degree of possibility, respectively. Degrees of support can be regarded as non-additive probabilities of provability, which generalizes the concepts of ordinary logical entailment (for 
+  
+    
+      
+        V
+        =
+        {
+        }
+      
+    
+    {\displaystyle V=\{\}}
+  
+) and classical posterior probabilities (for 
+  
+    
+      
+        V
+        =
+        W
+      
+    
+    {\displaystyle V=W}
+  
+). Mathematically, this view is compatible with the Dempster–Shafer theory.
+The theory of evidential reasoning also defines non-additive probabilities of probability (or epistemic probabilities) as a general notion for both logical entailment (provability) and probability. The idea is to augment standard propositional logic by considering an epistemic operator K that represents the state of knowledge that a rational agent has about the world. Probabilities are then defined over the resulting epistemic universe Kp of all propositional sentences p, and it is argued that this is the best information available to an analyst. From this view, Dempster–Shafer theory appears to be a generalized form of probabilistic reasoning.
+
+== See also ==
+
+== References ==
+
+== Further reading ==
+Adams, E. W., 1998. A Primer of Probability Logic. CSLI Publications (Univ. of Chicago Press).
+Bacchus, F., 1990. "Representing and reasoning with Probabilistic Knowledge. A Logical Approach to Probabilities". The MIT Press.
+Carnap, R., 1950. Logical Foundations of Probability. University of Chicago Press.
+Chuaqui, R., 1991. Truth, Possibility and Probability: New Logical Foundations of Probability and Statistical Inference. Number 166 in Mathematics Studies. North-Holland.
+Haenni, H., Romeyn, JW, Wheeler, G., and Williamson, J. 2011. Probabilistic Logics and Probabilistic Networks, Springer.
+Hájek, A., 2001, "Probability, Logic, and Probability Logic," in Goble, Lou, ed., The Blackwell Guide to Philosophical Logic, Blackwell.
+Jaynes, E., 1998, "Probability Theory: The Logic of Science", pdf and Cambridge University Press 2003.
+Kyburg, H. E., 1970. Probability and Inductive Logic Macmillan.
+Kyburg, H. E., 1974. The Logical Foundations of Statistical Inference, Dordrecht: Reidel.
+Kyburg, H. E. & C. M. Teng, 2001. Uncertain Inference, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
+Romeiyn, J. W., 2005. Bayesian Inductive Logic. PhD thesis, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Groningen, Netherlands. [1]
+Williamson, J., 2002, "Probability Logic," in D. Gabbay, R. Johnson, H. J. Ohlbach, and J. Woods, eds., Handbook of the Logic of Argument and Inference: the Turn Toward the Practical. Elsevier: 397–424.
+
+== External links ==
+Progicnet: Probabilistic Logic And Probabilistic Networks
+Subjective logic demonstrations
+The Society for Imprecise Probability

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+---
+title: "Progressive contextualization"
+chunk: 1/1
+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_contextualization"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:51.494512+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+Progressive contextualization (PC) is a scientific method pioneered and developed by Andrew P. Vayda and research team between 1979 and 1984. The method was developed to help understand cause of damage and destruction of forest and land during the New Order Regime in Indonesia, as well as practical ethnography. Vayda proposed the Progressive contextualization method due to his dissatisfaction with several conventional anthropological methods to describe accurately and quickly cases of illegal logging, land destruction and the network of actor-investor protecting the actions, as well as various consequences detrimental to the environment and social life.
+The essence of this method is to track and assess: 
+
+what the actor (actor-based) or network of certain actors (actor-based network) does in a certain location and time
+the series of consequences (intended or unintended) that result from what the actors and/or networks do, in a time and space that can be different from the original time and space, as long as it is in accordance with the interest of the research and the available time. Therefore, the PC method does not have to be bound to a certain research place and time pre-determined in the research design.
+It rejects the assumption of ecological and socio-cultural homogeneity. Instead, it focuses on diversity and it looks at how different individuals and groups operate in and adapt to their total environments through a variety of behaviors, technologies, organizations, structures and beliefs.
+
+Due attention to context in the elucidation of actions and consequences may often mean having to deal with precisely the kind of factors and processes often scanted or denied by holistic approaches: the loose, transient, and contingent interactions, the disarticulating processes, and the movements of people, resources, and ideas across whatever boundaries that ecosystems, societies, and cultures are thought to have — Vayda, 1986
+Based on such a premise and through the practical interpretation of facts, the approach will lead to 'concrete findings on who is doing what, why they are doing it, and with what effects.'
+
+
+== References ==

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+title: "Provenance"
+chunk: 1/6
+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provenance"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:53.910635+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+Provenance (from French  provenir 'to come from/forth') is the chronology of the ownership, custody or location of a historical object. The term was originally mostly used in relation to works of art, but is now used in similar senses in a wide range of fields, including archaeology, paleontology, archival science, economy, computing, and scientific enquiry in general.
+The primary purpose of tracing the provenance of an object or entity is normally to provide contextual and circumstantial evidence for its original production or discovery, by establishing, as far as practicable, its later history, especially the sequences of its formal ownership, custody and places of storage. The practice has a particular value in helping authenticate objects. Comparative techniques, expert opinions and the results of scientific tests may also be used to these ends, but establishing provenance is essentially a matter of documentation. The term dates to the 1780s in English. Provenance is conceptually comparable to the legal term chain of custody.
+For museums and the art trade, in addition to helping establish the authorship and authenticity of an object, provenance has become increasingly important in helping establish the moral and legal validity of a chain of custody, given the increasing amount of looted art. These issues first became a major concern regarding works that had changed hands in Nazi-controlled areas in Europe before and during World War II. Many museums began compiling pro-active registers of such works and their history. Recently the same concerns have come to prominence for works of African art, often exported illegally, and antiquities from many parts of the world, but currently especially in Iraq, and then Syria.
+In archaeology and paleontology, the derived term provenience is used with a related but very particular meaning, to refer to the location (in modern research, recorded precisely in three dimensions) where an artifact or other ancient item was found. Provenance covers an object's complete documented history. An artifact may thus have both a provenience and a provenance.
+
+== Works of art and antiques ==
+The provenance of works of fine art, antiques and antiquities is of great importance, especially to their owner. There are a number of reasons why painting provenance is important, which mostly also apply to other types of fine art. A good provenance increases the value of a painting, and establishing provenance may help confirm the date, artist and, especially for portraits, the subject of a painting. It may confirm whether a painting is genuinely of the period it seems to date from. The provenance of paintings can help resolve ownership disputes. For example, provenance between 1933 and 1945 can determine whether a painting was looted by the Nazis.
+Many galleries are putting a great deal of effort into researching the provenance of paintings in their collections for which there is no firm provenance during that period. Documented evidence of provenance for an object can help to establish that it has not been altered and is not a forgery, a reproduction, stolen or looted art. Provenance helps assign the work to a known artist, and a documented history can be of use in helping to prove ownership. An example of a detailed provenance is given in the Arnolfini portrait.
+The quality of provenance of an important work of art can make a considerable difference to its selling price in the market. This is affected by the degree of certainty of the provenance, the status of past owners as collectors, and in many cases by the strength of evidence that an object has not been illegally excavated or exported from another country. The provenance of a work of art may vary greatly in length, depending on context or the amount that is known, from a single name to an entry in a scholarly catalogue some thousands of words long.
+An expert certification can mean the difference between an object having no value and being worth a fortune. Certifications themselves may be open to question. Jacques van Meegeren forged the work of his father Han van Meegeren, who had forged the work of Vermeer. Jacques sometimes produced a certificate with his forgeries, stating that a work was created by his father.
+John Drewe was able to pass off as genuine paintings, a large number of forgeries that would have easily been recognised as such by scientific examination. He established an impressive, but false provenance. Because of this, galleries and dealers accepted the paintings as genuine. He created this false provenance by forging letters and other documents, including false entries in earlier exhibition catalogues.
+Sometimes provenance can be as simple as a photograph of the item with its original owner. Simple yet definitive documentation such as that can increase its value by an order of magnitude, but only if the owner was of high renown. Many items that were sold at auction have gone far past their estimates because of a photograph showing that item with a famous person. Some examples include antiques owned by politicians, musicians, artists, actors, etc.
+In the context of discussions about the restitution of cultural objects in museum collections of colonial origin, the AfricaMuseum in Belgium started to publicly present information about such objects in its permanent exhibition in 2021.
+
+=== Researching the provenance of paintings ===

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+title: "Provenance"
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+category: "reference"
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+---
+
+The objective of provenance research is to produce a complete list of owners (together, where possible, with the supporting documentary proof) from when the painting was commissioned or in the artist's studio through to the present time. In practice, there are likely to be gaps in the list and documents that are missing or lost. The documented provenance should also list when the painting has been part of an exhibition and a bibliography of when it has been discussed, or illustrated in print.
+Where the research is proceeding backwards, to discover the previous provenance of a painting whose current ownership and location are known, it is important to record the physical details of the painting – style, subject, signature, materials, dimensions, frame, etc. The titles of paintings and the attribution to a particular artist may change over time. The size of the work and its description can be used to identify earlier references to the painting.
+The back of a painting can contain significant provenance information. There may be exhibition marks, dealer stamps, gallery labels and other indications of previous ownership. There may be shipping labels. In the BBC TV programme Fake or Fortune? the provenance of the painting Bords de la Seine à Argenteuil was investigated using a gallery sticker and shipping label on the back. Early provenance can sometimes be indicated by a cartellino, a trompe-l'œil representation of an inscribed label, added to the front of a painting. However, these can be forged, or can fade or be painted over.
+Auction records are an important resource to assist in researching the provenance of paintings.
+
+The Witt Library houses a collection of cuttings from auction catalogs which enables the researcher to identify occasions when a picture has been sold.
+The Heinz Library at the National Portrait Gallery, London maintains a similar collection, but restricted to portraits.
+The National Art Library at the Victoria and Albert Museum has a collection of UK sales catalogues.
+The University of York is establishing a web site with on-line resources for investigating art history in the period 1660–1735. This includes diaries, sales catalogues, bills, correspondence and inventories.
+The Getty Research Institute in Los Angeles has a Project for the Study of Collecting and Provenance (PSCP) which includes an on-line database, still being compiled, of auction and other records relating to painting provenance.
+The Frick Art Reference Library in New York has an extensive collection of auction and exhibition catalogues.
+The Netherlands Institute for Art History (RKD) has a number of databases related to artists from the Netherlands.
+If a painting has been in private hands for an extended period and on display in a stately home, it may be recorded in an inventory – for example, the Lumley inventory. The painting may also have been noticed by a visitor who subsequently wrote about it. It may have been mentioned in a will or a diary. Where the painting has been bought from a dealer, or changed hands in a private transaction, there may be a bill of sale or sales receipt that provides evidence of provenance. Where the artist is known, there may be a catalogue raisonné listing all the artist's known works and their location at the time of writing. A database of catalogues raisonné is available at the International Foundation for Art Research.
+Historic photos of the painting may be discussed and illustrated in a more general work on the artist, period or genre. Similarly, a photograph of a painting may show inscriptions (or a signature) that subsequently became lost as a result of overzealous restoration. Conversely, a photograph may show that an inscription was not visible at an earlier date. One of the disputed aspects of the "Rice" portrait of Jane Austen concerns apparent inscriptions identifying artist and sitter.
+
+== Archives ==
+
+Provenance – also known as custodial history – is a core concept within archival science and archival processing. The term refers to the individuals, groups, or organizations that originally created or received the items in an accumulation of records, and to the items' subsequent chain of custody. The principle of provenance, also termed the principle of "archival integrity", and a major strand in the broader principle of respect des fonds, stipulates that records originating from a common source, or fonds, should be kept together – where practicable, physically, but in all cases intellectually, in the way in which they are catalogued and arranged in finding aids. Conversely, records of different provenance should be preserved and documented separately.
+In archival practice, proof of provenance is provided by the operation of control systems that document the history of records kept in archives, including details of amendments made to them. The authority of an archival document or set of documents of which the provenance is uncertain, because of gaps in the recorded chain of custody, will be considered to be severely compromised.
+The principles of archival provenance were developed in the 19th century by both French and Prussian archivists, and gained widespread acceptance on the basis of their formulation in the Manual for the Arrangement and Description of Archives by Dutch state archivists Samuel Muller, J. A. Feith, and R. Fruin, published in the Netherlands in 1898, often referred to as the "Dutch Manual".
+Seamus Ross has argued a case for adapting established principles and theories of archival provenance to the field of modern digital preservation and curation.
+Provenance is also the title of the journal published by the Society of Georgia Archivists.

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+---
+
+== Books ==
+In the case of books, the study of provenance refers to the study of the ownership of individual copies of books. It is usually extended to include the study of the circumstances in which individual copies of books have changed ownership, and of evidence left in books that shows how readers interacted with them.
+Provenance studies may shed light on the books themselves, providing evidence of the role particular titles have played in social, intellectual and literary history. Such studies may also add to our knowledge of particular owners of books. For instance, looking at the books owned by a writer may help to show which works influenced him or her.
+Many provenance studies are historically focused, and concentrated on books owned by writers, politicians and public figures. The recent ownership of books is studied, however, as is evidence of how ordinary or anonymous readers have interacted with books.
+Provenance can be studied both by examining the books themselves, for instance looking at inscriptions, marginalia, bookplates, book rhymes, and bindings, and by reference to external sources of information such as auction catalogues.
+
+== Pianos ==
+Provenance for pianos is authenticated before a piano is inducted into a museum, sold at an auction, or appraised for an estate or legal action, when it has extraordinary value in connection to a composer, performer, event or location that has become famous. For example, the piano that Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart used during the final 10 years of his life, is on display in the Mozarteum Museum in Salzberg, one of many historical pianos in museums around the world. The 300,000th Steinway piano that was presented to President Franklin D. Roosevelt by Theodore Steinway, on behalf of the Steinway family is on display in the White House. It is one of many pianos with a provenance that have extraordinary value because of art, sculpture or design incorporated into the cabinet. It has legs carved into golden eagles and figures painted on the body of the piano.
+For a piano, provenance can be established by starting with the authentication of the brand of manufacture and serial number, which will usually identify age. Then bills of sale, tuning records, bills of lading, concert programs that identify a piano by serial number, letters, famous signatures inside or on the outside of a piano, statements under oath in a court of law and photographs can all help authenticate a piano's provenance.
+
+=== Piano Provenance and Valuation ===
+Pianos can sell for millions of dollars, when the provenance is significant enough to increase its value well beyond what it would be worth as a musical instrument alone.
+When decisions need to be made in a court of law for a bankruptcy, or before a piano goes up for auction, or when an educational institution needs to establish a value for a deed of trust being established with the gift of a piano, then experts are usually hired to authenticate the piano's provenance.
+Piano provenance has emerged as a field of study with experts having college degrees in some specialty connected to the piano or to art combined with professional training and experience in the field.
+Most experts belong to some form of association. For example, Karen Earle Lile niece of Tony Terran and Kendall Ross Bean, members of the Preservations Artisans Guild, were chosen  by Mercersburg Academy to research and authenticate the provenance of the Lennon-Ono-Green-Warhol piano before it was put up for sale to fund a Deed of Trust by the Shaool Family to Mercersburg Academy for future student scholarships. Because this piano was part of a famous lawsuit in 2000 and had extensive coverage as the "Lost Lennon Piano", when provenance research done by Lile was revealed by the Alex Cooper Auctioneers to the public, the provenance became the subject of dozens of newspapers and magazines that picked up the story.
+In the case of sculpture or art that are incorporated into the piano's cabinet, experts might be come from the field of art valuation and belong to an appraiser society such as the American Society of Appraisers or the International Society of Appraisers.
+
+== Wines ==
+In transactions of old wine with the potential of improving with age, the issue of provenance has a large bearing on the assessment of the contents of a bottle, both in terms of quality and the risk of wine fraud. A documented history of wine cellar conditions is valuable in estimating the quality of an older vintage due to the fragile nature of wine.
+Recent technology developments have aided collectors in assessing the temperature and humidity history of the wine which are two key components in establishing perfect provenance. For example, there are devices available that rest inside the wood case and can be read through the wood by waving a smartphone equipped with a simple app. These devices track the conditions the case has been exposed to for the duration of the battery life, which can be as long as 15 years, and sends a graph and high/low readings to the smartphone user. This takes the trust issue out of the hands of the owner and gives it to a third party for verification.
+
+== Science ==
+
+=== Archaeology, anthropology, and paleontology ===

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+
+Archaeology and anthropology researchers use the word provenience (or alternatively find-spot) to refer to the exact location of discovery of an artifact, a bone or other remains, a soil sample, or a feature within an ancient site, whereas the word provenance covers an object's complete documented history. Ideally, in modern excavations, the provenience is recorded in three dimensions on a site grid with great precision, and may also be recorded on video to provide additional proof and context. In older work, often undertaken by amateurs, only the general site or approximate area may be known, especially when an artifact was found outside a professional excavation and its specific position not recorded. The term provenience appeared in the 1880s, about a century after provenance. Outside of academic contexts, it has been used as a synonymous variant spelling of provenance, especially in American English.
+Digital analytical methods have also been applied to the reconstruction of archaeological provenience. For example, a 2025 study used high-resolution three-dimensional surface comparison to identify ancient Egyptian artefacts produced from the same mould, contributing to the reassessment of their original context.
+Any given antiquity may have both a provenience, where it was found, and a provenance, where it has been since it was found. A summary of the distinction is that "provenience is a fixed point, while provenance can be considered an itinerary that an object follows as it moves from hand to hand." Another metaphor is that provenience is an artifact's "birthplace", while provenance is its "résumé". This can be imprecise. Many artifacts originated as trade goods created in one region, but were used and finally deposited in another.
+Aside from scientific precision, a need for the distinction in these fields has been described thus:
+
+Archaeologists ... don't care who owned an object—they are more interested in the context of an object within the community of its (mostly original) users. ... [W]e are interested in why a Roman coin turned up in a shipwreck 400 years after it was made; while art historians don't really care, since they can generally figure out what mint a coin came from by the information stamped on its surface. "It's a Roman coin, what else do we need to know?" says an art historian; "The shipping trade in the Mediterranean region during late Roman times" says an archaeologist. ... [P]rovenance for an art historian is important to establish ownership, but provenience is interesting to an archaeologist to establish meaning.
+In this context, the provenance can occasionally be the detailed history of where an object has been since its creation, as in art history contexts – not just since its modern finding. In some cases, such as where there is an inscription on the object, or an account of it in written materials from the same era, an object of study in archaeology or cultural anthropology may have an early provenance – a known history that predates modern research – then a provenience from its modern finding, and finally a continued provenance relating to its handling and storage or display after the modern acquisition.
+Evidence of provenance in the more general sense can be of importance in archaeology. Fakes are not unknown, and finds are sometimes removed from the context in which they were found without documentation, reducing their value to science. Even when apparently discovered in situ, archaeological finds are treated with caution. The provenience of a find may not be properly represented by the context in which it was found, e.g. due to stratigraphic layers being disturbed by erosion, earthquakes, or ancient reconstruction or other disturbance at a site.
+Artifacts can be moved through looting as well as trade, far from their place of origin and long before modern rediscovery. Many source nations have passed legislation forbidding the domestic trade in cultural heritage. Further research is often required to establish the true provenance and legal status of a find, and what the relationship is between the exact provenience and the overall provenance.
+In paleontology and paleoanthropology, it is recognized that fossils can also move from their primary context and are sometimes found, apparently in-situ, in deposits to which they do not belong because they have been moved, for example, by the erosion of nearby but different outcrops. It is unclear how strictly paleontology maintains the provenience and provenance distinction. For example, a short glossary at a website, primarily aimed at young students, of the American Museum of Natural History treats the terms as synonymous, while scholarly paleontology works make frequent use of provenience in the same precise sense as used in archaeology and paleoanthropology.
+While exacting details of a find's provenience are primarily of use to scientific researchers, most natural history and archaeology museums also make strenuous efforts to record how the items in their collections were acquired. These records are often of use in helping to establish a chain of provenance.
+
+=== Data provenance ===
+
+Scientific research is generally held to be of good provenance when it is documented in detail sufficient to allow reproducibility. Scientific workflow systems assist scientists and programmers with tracking their data through all transformations, analyses, and interpretations. Data sets are reliable when the processes used to create them are reproducible and analyzable for defects. Security researchers are interested in data provenance because it can analyze suspicious data and make large opaque systems transparent.
+Current initiatives to effectively manage, share, and reuse ecological data are indicative of the increasing importance of data provenance. Examples of these initiatives are National Science Foundation Datanet projects, DataONE and Data Conservancy, as well as the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Some international academic consortia, such as the Research Data Alliance, have specific groups to tackle issues of provenance. In that case it is the Research Data Provenance Interest Group.

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+title: "Provenance"
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+---
+
+=== Computer science ===
+Within computer science, informatics uses the term "provenance" to mean the lineage of data, as per data provenance, with research in the last decade extending the conceptual model of causality and relation to include processes that act on data and agents that are responsible for those processes. See, for example, the proceedings of the International Provenance Annotation Workshop (IPAW) and Theory and Practice of Provenance (TaPP). Semantic web standards bodies, including the World Wide Web Consortium in 2014, have ratified a standard data model for provenance representation known as PROV which draws from many of the better-known provenance representation systems that preceded it, such as the Proof Markup Language and the Open Provenance Model.
+Interoperability is a design goal of most recent computer science provenance theories and models, for example the Open Provenance Model (OPM) 2008 generation workshop aimed at "establishing inter-operability of systems" through information exchange agreements. Data models and serialisation formats for delivering provenance information typically reuse existing metadata models where possible to enable this. Both the OPM Vocabulary and the PROV Ontology make extensive use of metadata models such as Dublin Core and Semantic Web technologies such as the Web Ontology Language (OWL). Current practice is to rely on the W3C PROV data model, OPM's successor.
+There are several maintained and open-source provenance capture implementation at the operating system level such as CamFlow, Progger for Linux and MS Windows, and SPADE for Linux, MS Windows, and MacOS. Operating system level provenance have gained interest in the security community notably to develop novel intrusion detection techniques. Other implementations exist for specific programming and scripting languages, such as RDataTracker for R, and NoWorkflow for Python.
+
+==== Whole-system provenance implementation for Linux ====
+PASS – closed source – not maintained – kernel v2.6.X
+Hi-Fi – open source – not maintained – kernel v3.2.x
+Flogger – closed source – not maintained – kernel v2.6.x
+S2Logger – closed source – not maintained – kernel v2.6.x
+LPM – open source – not maintained – kernel v2.6.x
+Progger – open source – not maintained – kernel v2.6.x and kernel v.4.14.x
+CamFlow – open source – maintained – kernel v6.0.X
+
+=== Petrology ===
+
+In the geologic use of the term, provenance instead refers to the origin or source area of particles within a rock, most commonly in sedimentary rocks. It does not refer to the circumstances of the collection of the rock. The provenance of sandstone, in particular, can be evaluated by determining the proportion of quartz, feldspar, and lithic fragments (see diagram).
+
+=== Seed provenance ===
+Seed provenance refers to the geographic location of a parent plant, from which seeds were collected. In the context of ecological restoration, seed provenancing refers to a seed-sourcing strategy that focuses on the geographic location of seed sources, as each provenance can describe the genetic material from that location. Local provenancing is a position maintained by ecologists that suggests that only seeds of local provenance should be planted in a particular area. However, this view depends on the adaptationist program – a view that populations are universally locally adapted. It is maintained that local seed is best adapted to local conditions, and that outbreeding depression will be avoided. Evolutionary biologists suggest that strict adherence to provenance collecting is not a wise decision because:
+
+Local adaptation is not as common as assumed.
+Background population maladaptation can be driven by natural processes.
+Human actions of habitat fragmentation drive maladaptation up and adaptive potential down.
+Natural selection is changing rapidly due to climate change. and habitat fragmentation
+Population fragments are unlikely to divergence by natural selection since fragmentation (< 500 years). This leads to a low risk of outbreeding depression.
+Provenance trials, where material of different provenances are planted in a single place or at different locations spanning a range of environmental conditions, is a way to reveal genetic variation among provenances. It also contributes to an understanding of how different provenances respond to various climatic and environmental conditions and can as such contribute with knowledge on how to strategically select provenances for climate change adaptation.

data/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provenance-5.md

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+---
+title: "Provenance"
+chunk: 6/6
+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provenance"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:53.910635+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+== Computers and law ==
+The term provenance is used when ascertaining the source of goods such as computer hardware to assess if they are genuine or counterfeit. Chain of custody is an equivalent term used in law, especially for evidence in criminal or commercial cases.
+Software provenance encompasses the origin of software and its licensing terms. For example, when incorporating a free, open source or proprietary software component in an application, one may wish to understand its provenance to ensure that licensing requirements are fulfilled and that other software characteristics can be understood.
+Data provenance covers the provenance of computerized data. There are two main aspects of data provenance: ownership of the data and data usage. Ownership will tell the user who is responsible for the source of the data, ideally including information on the originator of the data. Data usage gives details regarding how the data has been used and modified and often includes information on how to cite the data source or sources.
+Data provenance is of particular concern with electronic data, as data sets are often modified and copied without proper citation or acknowledgement of the originating data set. Databases make it easy to select specific information from data sets and merge this data with other data sources without any documentation of how the data was obtained or how it was modified from the original data set or sets.
+The automated analysis of data provenance graphs has been described as a mean to verify compliance with regulations regarding data usage such as introduced by the EU GDPR.
+Secure Provenance refers to providing integrity and confidentiality guarantees to provenance information. In other words, secure provenance means to ensure that history cannot be rewritten, and users can specify who else can look into their actions on the object.
+A simple method of ensuring data provenance in computing is to mark a file as read only. This allows the user to view the contents of the file, but not edit or otherwise modify it. Read only can also in some cases prevent the user from accidentally or intentionally deleting the file.
+
+== See also ==
+Art discovery
+Certificate of origin
+Chronological dating
+Post-excavation analysis
+Chain of custody
+Traceability
+
+== References ==
+
+== Bibliography ==
+Art
+
+Feigenbaum, Gail; Reist, Inge, eds. (2012). Provenance: An Alternate History of Art. Issues & Debates. Los Angeles: Getty Research Institute. ISBN 978-1606061220.
+Book studies
+
+Nazi-Era provenance research
+
+== External links ==
+
+The National Gallery of Art Washington gives brief provenances for most featured works
+EU Provenance Project - a technology project that sought to support the electronic certification of data provenance
+W3C Provenance Working Group
+W3C Provenance Outreach Information

data/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudoskepticism-0.md

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+---
+title: "Pseudoskepticism"
+chunk: 1/2
+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudoskepticism"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:55.018608+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+Pseudoskepticism (also spelled as pseudoscepticism) is a philosophical or scientific position that appears to be that of skepticism or scientific skepticism but in reality is a form of dogmatism.
+
+== Nineteenth and early twentieth centuries ==
+An early use of the word was in self-denigration: on 31 August 1869, Swiss philosopher Henri-Frédéric Amiel wrote in his diary:
+
+My instinct is in harmony with the pessimism of Buddha and of Schopenhauer. It is a doubt which never leaves me, even in my moments of religious fervor. Nature is indeed for me a Maïa; and I look at her, as it were, with the eyes of an artist. My intelligence remains skeptical. What, then, do I believe in? I do not know. And what is it I hope for? It would be difficult to say. Folly! I believe in goodness, and I hope that good will prevail. Deep within this ironical and disappointed being of mine there is a child hidden — a frank, sad, simple creature, who believes in the ideal, in love, in holiness, and all heavenly superstitions. A whole millennium of idyls sleeps in my heart; I am a pseudo-skeptic, a pseudo-scoffer.
+It soon acquired its usual meaning where a claimed skeptic is accused of excessive sureness in turning initial doubts into certainties. In 1908 Henry Louis Mencken wrote on Friedrich Nietzsche's criticism of philosopher David Strauss that:
+
+Strauss had been a preacher but had renounced the cloth and set up shop as a critic of Christianity. He had labored with good intentions, no doubt, but the net result of all his smug agnosticism was that his disciples were as self-satisfied, bigoted, and prejudiced in the garb of agnostics as they had been before as Christians. Nietzsche's eye saw this and in the first of his little pamphlets "David Strauss, der Bekenner und der Schriftsteller" ("David Strauss, the Confessor and the Writer"), he bore down on Strauss's bourgeoise pseudo-skepticism most savagely. This was 1873.
+Professor of Philosophy at the University of Illinois, Frederick L. Will used the term "pseudo-skepticism" in 1942. Alasdair MacIntyre writes:
+
+[Frederick] Will was no exception. He began as an analytical philosopher, distinguishing different uses of language with the aim of showing that certain traditional philosophical problems need no longer trouble us, once we have understood how to make the relevant linguistic distinctions. The enemies were two: the philosophical skeptic who poses these false problems and the philosopher who thinks that the skeptic needs to be answered. So in "Is there a Problem of Induction?" (Journal of Philosophy, 1942) it is two senses of "know" that are to be distinguished: "All the uneasiness, the pseudo-skepticism and the pseudo-problem of induction, would never appear if it were possible to keep clear that 'know' in the statement that we do not know statements about the future is employed in a very special sense, not at all its ordinary one.
+Notre Dame Professor of English, John E. Sitter used the term in 1977 in a discussion of Alexander Pope: "Pope's intent, I believe, is to chasten the reader's skepticism — the pseudo-skepticism of the overly confident 'you' ... "
+
+== Truzzi ==
+In 1987, Marcello Truzzi revived the term specifically for arguments which use scientific-sounding language to disparage or refute given beliefs, theories, or claims, but which in fact fail to follow the precepts of conventional scientific skepticism. He argued that scientific skepticism is agnostic to new ideas, making no claims about them but waiting for them to satisfy a burden of proof before granting them validity. Pseudoskepticism, by contrast, involves "negative hypotheses"—theoretical assertions that some belief, theory, or claim is factually wrong—without satisfying the burden of proof that such negative theoretical assertions would require.
+In 1987, while working as a professor of sociology at Eastern Michigan University, Truzzi gave the following description of pseudoskeptics in the journal Zetetic Scholar (which he founded):
+
+In science, the burden of proof falls upon the claimant; and the  more extraordinary a claim, the heavier is the burden of proof demanded. The true skeptic takes an agnostic position, one that says the claim is not proved rather than disproved. He asserts that the claimant has not borne the burden of  proof and that science must continue to build its cognitive map of reality without incorporating the extraordinary claim as a new "fact." Since the true skeptic does not assert a claim, he has no burden to prove anything. He just goes on using the established theories of "conventional science" as usual. But  if a critic asserts that there is evidence for disproof, that he has a negative hypothesis—saying, for instance, that a seeming psi result was actually due to an artifact—he is making a claim and therefore also has to bear a burden  of proof...
+Both critics and proponents need to learn to think of adjudication in science as more like that found in the law courts, imperfect and with varying degrees of proof and evidence.  Absolute truth, like absolute justice,  is seldom obtainable. We can only do our best to approximate them.
+
+Truzzi attributed the following characteristics to pseudoskeptics:
+
+Denying, when only doubt has been established
+Double standards in the application of criticism
+The tendency to discredit rather than investigate
+Presenting insufficient evidence or proof
+Assuming criticism requires no burden of proof
+Making unsubstantiated counter-claims
+Counter-claims based on plausibility rather than empirical evidence
+Suggesting that unconvincing evidence provides grounds for completely dismissing a claim
+He characterized true skepticism as:
+
+Acceptance of doubt when neither assertion nor denial has been established
+No burden of proof to take an agnostic position
+Agreement that the corpus of established knowledge must be based on what is proved, but recognising its incompleteness
+Even-handedness in requirement for proofs, whatever their implication
+Accepting that a failure of a proof in itself proves nothing
+Continuing examination of the results of experiments even when flaws are found

data/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudoskepticism-1.md

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+---
+title: "Pseudoskepticism"
+chunk: 2/2
+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudoskepticism"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:55.018608+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+== Subsequent usage ==
+Susan Blackmore, who lost her initial belief in parapsychology and in 1991 became a CSICOP fellow, later described what she termed the "worst kind of pseudoskepticism":
+
+There are some members of the skeptics' groups who clearly believe they know the right answer prior to inquiry. They appear not to be interested in weighing alternatives, investigating strange claims, or trying out psychic experiences or altered states for themselves (heaven forbid!), but only in promoting their own particular belief structure and cohesion.
+Hugo Anthony Meynell from the Department of Religious Studies at the University of Calgary, labels the "extreme position that all significant evidence supporting paranormal phenomena is a result of deception or lies" as pseudoskepticism.
+While Truzzi's characterization was aimed at the holders of majority views whom he considered were excessively impatient of minority opinions, the term has been used to describe advocates of minority intellectual positions who engage in pseudoskeptical behavior when they characterize themselves as "skeptics" despite cherry picking evidence that conforms to a preexisting belief. Thus according to Richard Cameron Wilson, some advocates of AIDS denial are indulging in "bogus scepticism" when they argue in this way. Wilson argues that the characteristic feature of false skepticism is that it "centres not on an impartial search for the truth, but on the defence of a preconceived ideological position". Examples include climate change denial and Moon landing denial.
+
+== See also ==
+Agnosticism
+Argument from ignorance
+Debunker
+Denialism
+Pseudoscience
+Pseudorationalism
+Scientism
+The New Inquisition
+
+== Notes and references ==

data/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PubPeer-0.md

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+---
+title: "PubPeer"
+chunk: 1/1
+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PubPeer"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:56.235768+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+PubPeer is a website that allows users to discuss and review scientific research after publication, i.e. post-publication peer review, established in 2012.
+The site has served as a whistleblowing platform, in that it highlighted shortcomings in several high-profile papers, in some cases leading to retractions and to accusations of scientific fraud,
+as noted by Retraction Watch. Contrary to most platforms, it allows anonymous post-publication commenting, a controversial feature which is the main factor for its success. Consequently, accusations of libel have been levelled at some of PubPeer's users; correspondingly the website has since 2016 told commentators to use only facts that can be publicly verified.
+Questions have been raised about the copyright ownership of PubPeer's often-anonymous contents.
+In 2021 a study found that "more than two-thirds of comments [on PubPeer] are posted to report some type of misconduct, mainly about image manipulation". Health sciences and life sciences were shown to have most comments, and most comments reporting publishing fraud and data manipulation. Social science and humanities disciplines in turn had fewer comments, but the highest percentage comments about critical reviews about theory and highlight methodological flaws. The research concluded that "while biochemists access the site to report misconduct... social scientists and humanists use it to discuss conclusions and detect methodological errors". The study also reported that 85.6% of comments are anonymous and that "only 31.5% of publications received more than three comments, and the response rate of authors is very low (7.5%)."
+In 2023 a study found that "only 21.5% of the articles [flagged on PubPeer] that deserve an editorial notice (i.e., honest errors, methodological flaws, publishing fraud, manipulation) were corrected by the [relevant] journal".
+In November 2024, PubPeer and its co-Founder, Brandon Stell, received the Institutional Award for research integrity from the Einstein Foundation (Germany).
+
+
+== See also ==
+
+Open peer review
+Journal club
+JournalReview.org
+Publons
+
+
+== References ==
+
+
+== Further reading ==
+Couzin-Frankel, Jennifer (31 August 2015). "PubPeer's secret is out: Founder of controversial website reveals himself". Science AAAS. Retrieved 3 January 2021.
+
+
+== External links ==
+PubPeer Selections on Retraction Watch

data/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quietism_(philosophy)-0.md

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+---
+title: "Quietism (philosophy)"
+chunk: 1/1
+source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quietism_(philosophy)"
+category: "reference"
+tags: "science, encyclopedia"
+date_saved: "2026-05-05T03:16:57.508689+00:00"
+instance: "kb-cron"
+---
+
+Quietism in philosophy sees the role of philosophy as broadly therapeutic or remedial. Quietist philosophers believe that philosophy has no positive thesis to contribute; rather, it defuses confusions in the linguistic and conceptual frameworks of other subjects, including non-quietist philosophy. For quietists, advancing knowledge or settling debates (particularly those between realists and non-realists) is not the job of philosophy, rather philosophy should liberate the mind by diagnosing confusing concepts.
+
+
+== Status within philosophy ==
+Crispin Wright said that "Quietism is the view that significant metaphysical debate is impossible." It has been described as "the view or stance that entails avoidance of substantive philosophical theorizing and is usually associated with certain forms of skepticism, pragmatism, and minimalism about truth. More particularly, it is opposed to putting forth positive theses and developing constructive arguments." 
+Quietism by its nature is not a philosophical school as understood in the sense of a systematic body of truths.  The objective of quietism is to show that philosophical positions or theories cannot solve problems, settle debates or advance knowledge.
+It is often raised in discussion as an opposite position to both philosophical realism and anti-realism. Specifically, quietists deny that there is any substantial debate between the positions of realism and non-realism.  There are a range of justifications for quietism about the realism debate offered by Gideon Rosen and John McDowell.
+
+
+== History and proponents ==
+
+
+=== Ancient ===
+Pyrrhonism represents perhaps the earliest example of an identifiably quietist position in the West. The Pyrrhonist philosopher Sextus Empiricus described Pyrrhonism as a form of philosophical therapy:
+
+The causal principle of scepticism we say is the hope of attaining ataraxia (being unperturbed). Men of talent, troubled by the anomaly in things and puzzled as to which of them they should rather assent to, came to investigate what in things is true and what false, thinking that by deciding these issues they would attain ataraxia. The chief constitutive principle of scepticism is the claim that to every account an equal account is opposed; for it is from this, we think, that we come to hold no beliefs.
+Some have identified Epicureans as another early proponent of quietism.  The goals of Epicurean philosophy are the decidedly quietist objectives of aponia (freedom from pain) and ataraxia, even dismissing Stoic logic as useless.  
+The neo-Confucian philosopher Cheng Hao is also associated with advocating quietism.  He argued that the goal of existence should be calming one's natural biases and embracing impartial tranquility. This aversion to bias is nevertheless quite distinct from Wittgenstein's position.
+
+
+=== Contemporary ===
+Contemporary discussion of quietism can be traced back to Ludwig Wittgenstein, whose work greatly influenced the ordinary language philosophers.  While Wittgenstein himself did not advocate quietism, he expressed sympathy with the viewpoint.  One of the early 'ordinary language' works, Gilbert Ryle's The Concept of Mind, attempted to demonstrate that dualism arises from a failure to appreciate that mental vocabulary and physical vocabulary are simply different ways of describing one and the same thing, namely human behaviour. J. L. Austin's Sense and Sensibilia took a similar approach to the problems of skepticism and the reliability of sense perception, arguing that they arise only by misconstruing ordinary language, not because there is anything genuinely wrong with empirical evidence. Norman Malcolm, a friend of Wittgenstein's, took a quietist approach to skeptical problems in the philosophy of mind. 
+More recently, the philosophers John McDowell, Irad Kimhi, Sabina Lovibond, Eric Marcus, Gideon Rosen, and to a certain degree Richard Rorty have taken explicitly quietist positions. Pete Mandik has argued for a position of qualia quietism on the hard problem of consciousness.
+
+
+== Varieties ==
+Some philosophers have advanced quietism about specific subjects such as realism or truth. These positions can be held independent of one's view on quietism about the entire project of philosophy.
+
+
+=== On realism ===
+One may be a realist about a range of subjects within philosophy from ethics and aesthetics to science and mathematics.  Realists claim that a given concept exists, has particular properties and is in some way mind independent, while non-realists deny this claim.  Quietists take a third position, claiming that there is no real debate between realists and non-realists on a given subject.  A version of this position espoused by John McDowell claims that the debate hinges on theses about the relationship between the mind and the world around us that are unsupported or unsupportable, and without those claims there will be no debate.  Others, such as Gideon Rosen argue more specifically against individual cases of the realism debate.
+
+
+=== On truth ===
+Quietism about truth is a version of the identity theory of truth.  Specifically, Jennifer Hornsby and John McDowell argue that, when we think truly, there is no ontological gap between what we think and what is actually true.  Quietists about truth resist the distinction between truth bearers and truthmakers as leading to a correspondence theory of truth.  Rather they claim that such a distinction should be eliminated, true statements are simply one thinking truly about the world.  The target of these thoughts is not a truthbearer, but rather the facts of the world themselves.
+
+
+== See also ==
+Philosophical hermeneutics
+Critical philosophy
+Fictionalism
+Nonsense § Disguised Epistemic Nonsense for Wittgenstein's approach to philosophical problems
+
+
+== References ==
+
+
+== Sources ==
+Wittgenstein, Ludwig. Philosophical Investigations. 3rd Rev Edn, Blackwell, 2002. ISBN 0-631-23127-7
+Ryle, Gilbert. The Concept of Mind. London: Hutchinson, 1949. ISBN 0-14-012482-9
+Austin, J L. Sense and Sensibilia. OUP, 1962. ISBN 0-19-881083-0
+Macarthur, David. "Pragmatism, Metaphysical Quietism and the Problem of Normativity", Philosophical Topics. Vol.36 No.1, 2009.
+Malcolm, Norman. Dreaming (Studies in Philosophical Psychology). Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1959. ISBN 0-7100-3836-4
+McDowell, John and Evans, Gareth. Truth and Meaning. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1976. ISBN 0-19-824517-3
+McDowell, John. Mind and World. New Ed, Harvard, 1996. ISBN 0-674-57610-1